XPO
XPO Inc
$214.27
▲ 1.7%Updated Jul 21, 3:42 PM ET
XPO at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 21/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 57.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$25.16B
P/E
70.21x
Forward P/E (est.)
77.99x
ROE
19.0%
Revenue Growth
3.6%
EPS Growth
-10.0%
Profit Margin
4.2%
FCF Yield
2.1%
Debt / Equity
1.78x
ROIC
8.0%
Interest Coverage
3.9x
Current Ratio
0.99x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.6%
Rating Score
21/100
XPO Inc (XPO) is a large-cap company in the Road & Rail industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $25.16B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $8.16B in revenue and $316.00M in net profit.
Our model rates XPO Weak (21/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
7.3% average over the last 3 years
±1.9 pts around 4.9% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 6 years
8.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what XPO's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. XPO trades near $214.27, above its 50-day average ($210.81) and 200-day average ($173.46). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 30 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. XPO's is $8.07 (~3.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month XPO found buyers near $195.85 (support) and sellers near $232.05 (resistance); its 52-week range is $116.68–$232.05. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.1× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
3.2%
Revenue moved from $14.62B in 2016 to $8.16B in 2025, a -6.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (3.6%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
60.4%
Operating Margin
8.0%
Net Margin
3.9%
ROE
19.0%
XPO Inc keeps about 4.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 60.4% gross margin and 8.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 19.0% and return on invested capital about 8.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$4.86B
Net Debt
$4.62B
Net Debt / EBITDA
7.04x
Debt / Equity
1.78x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.8x, and operating profit covers interest about 3.9x, with a current ratio of 1.0x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $4.86B of total debt against $237.00M of cash.
Operating CF
$986.00M
Free Cash Flow
$329.00M
FCF Margin
4.0%
In the latest year XPO Inc produced about $986.00M of operating cash flow and $329.00M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 2.1% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Total paid (latest FY)
$3.00M
History on record
6 years
dividend uses 1% of free cash flow
1% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 6 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
70.21x
P/S
2.9x
P/B
8.85x
EV / EBITDA
26.52x
XPO trades at 70.2x trailing earnings (about 78.0x on estimated forward earnings), 2.9x sales, and 8.8x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 7.6% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$47.11
Current price
$214.27
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$329.00M
Growth, years 1–5
3.6%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where XPO sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How XPO stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), XPO ranks #139 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (70.2x P/E vs. 30.8x median) with a higher return on equity (19.0% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (3.6% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
70.2x
median 30.8x
ROE vs sector
19.0%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
3.6%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#139
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $214.27 today · expected CAGR -8% – 2%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.48B | $8.82B | $9.18B | $9.54B | $9.92B |
| Net income | $339.33M | $352.90M | $367.02M | $381.70M | $396.97M |
| EPS | $2.89 | $3.01 | $3.13 | $3.25 | $3.38 |
| Share price (low) | $121.39 | $126.24 | $131.29 | $136.54 | $142.00 |
| Share price (high) | $202.31 | $210.40 | $218.82 | $227.57 | $236.67 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -43% / -6% | -23% / -1% | -15% / 1% | -11% / 2% | -8% / 2% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for XPO:
- Strong return on equity (19.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Industrials, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against XPO:
- Thin net margins (4.2%) leave little room for error.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 1.8x) adds financial risk.
- A rich 70.2x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (21/100).
Valuation risk — at 70.2x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.8x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Margin risk — thin profitability (4.2%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: XPO Inc is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 70.2x earnings, which our model scores Weak (21/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 28 Wall Street analysts covering XPO recommend (July 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-5 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
XPO's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
XPO — frequently asked questions
Is XPO a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates XPO Inc Weak (21/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is XPO's rating on The Stocks School?
XPO Inc currently scores 21/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does XPO's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from XPO Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for XPO calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this XPO analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell XPO. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.