RIO
Rio Tinto PLC
$90.58
▲ 1.7%Updated Today 3:42 PM ET
RIO at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 59/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 58.9% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$154.60B
P/E
16.33x
Forward P/E (est.)
18.98x
ROE
18.1%
Revenue Growth
7.4%
EPS Growth
-14.0%
Profit Margin
17.3%
FCF Yield
7.1%
Debt / Equity
0.38x
ROIC
14.0%
Interest Coverage
14.06x
Current Ratio
1.44x
Dividend Yield
4.2%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.9%
Rating Score
59/100
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) is a large-cap company in the Metals & Mining industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $154.60B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $57.64B in revenue and $9.97B in net profit.
Our model rates RIO Favorable (59/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
27.5% average over the last 3 years
±8.0 pts around 32.9% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
14.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what RIO's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. RIO trades near $90.58, around its 50-day average ($102.02) and 200-day average ($86.88). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 20 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. RIO's is $2.06 (~2.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month RIO found buyers near $92.47 (support) and sellers near $107.40 (resistance); its 52-week range is $57.66–$112.58. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
-2.4%
Revenue moved from $33.78B in 2016 to $57.64B in 2025, a 6.1% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 7.4% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
25.9%
Net Margin
17.3%
ROE
18.1%
Rio Tinto PLC keeps about 17.3% of each sales dollar as net profit. Return on equity is 18.1% and return on invested capital about 14.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$21.20B
Net Debt
$12.33B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.83x
Debt / Equity
0.38x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.4x, and operating profit covers interest about 14.1x, with a current ratio of 1.4x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $21.20B of total debt against $8.87B of cash.
Operating CF
$16.83B
Free Cash Flow
$4.50B
FCF Margin
7.8%
In the latest year Rio Tinto PLC produced about $16.83B of operating cash flow and $4.50B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 7.1% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
Coverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
4.2%
Per share (latest FY)
$3.86
Total paid (latest FY)
$6.14B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 137% of free cash flow
62% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
16.33x
P/S
2.82x
P/B
2.2x
EV / EBITDA
8.5x
RIO trades at 16.3x trailing earnings (about 19.0x on estimated forward earnings), 2.8x sales, and 2.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.9% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$74.52
Current price
$90.58
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$4.50B
Growth, years 1–5
7.4%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where RIO sits versus its Materials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How RIO stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Materials sector (78 S&P 500 companies), RIO ranks #24 of 78 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (16.3x P/E vs. 21.2x median) with a higher return on equity (18.1% vs. 16.1%) and slower revenue growth (7.4% vs. 7.9%).
P/E vs sector
16.3x
median 21.2x
ROE vs sector
18.1%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
7.4%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#24
of 78 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 78 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $90.58 today · expected CAGR -2% – 7%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $61.67B | $65.99B | $70.61B | $75.55B | $80.84B |
| Net income | $10.48B | $11.22B | $12.00B | $12.84B | $13.74B |
| EPS | $6.14 | $6.57 | $7.03 | $7.53 | $8.05 |
| Share price (low) | $61.43 | $65.73 | $70.33 | $75.25 | $80.52 |
| Share price (high) | $98.28 | $105.16 | $112.53 | $120.40 | $128.83 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -32% / 9% | -15% / 8% | -8% / 7% | -5% / 7% | -2% / 7% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for RIO:
- High net margins (17.3%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (18.1%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~7.1%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.4x) lowers risk.
- Pays a 4.2% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (59/100).
The case against RIO:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Rio Tinto PLC is a large-cap materials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 16.3x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (59/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 33 Wall Street analysts covering RIO recommend (July 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
RIO's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
RIO — frequently asked questions
Is RIO a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Rio Tinto PLC Favorable (59/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is RIO's rating on The Stocks School?
Rio Tinto PLC currently scores 59/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does RIO's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Rio Tinto PLC's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for RIO calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this RIO analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell RIO. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.