BHP BHP Group Ltd
$83.23
▲ 0.4%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
BHP at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 56/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 65.6% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$202.87B
P/E
20.71x
Forward P/E (est.)
23.06x
ROE
20.9%
Revenue Growth
0.7%
EPS Growth
-10.2%
Profit Margin
19.0%
FCF Yield
6.9%
Debt / Equity
0.51x
ROIC
22.0%
Interest Coverage
16.66x
Current Ratio
1.46x
Dividend Yield
3.3%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.2%
Rating Score
56/100
Business Overview
BHP Group Ltd (BHP) is a mega-cap NYSE-listed company in the Metals & Mining industry, within the Materials sector, with a market value around $202.87B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $51.26B in revenue and $9.02B in net profit.
Our model rates BHP Neutral (56/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
37.4% average over the last 3 years
±10.5 pts around 36.3% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
22.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what BHP's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. BHP trades near $83.23, around its 50-day average ($84.74) and 200-day average ($69.41). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 31 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. BHP's is $2.19 (~2.6% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, BHP found buyers near $79.73 (support) and sellers near $93.83 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $49.23–$93.83. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.2× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
-2.6%
Revenue moved from $28.57B in 2016 to $51.26B in 2025, a 6.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (0.7%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
38.0%
Net Margin
17.6%
ROE
20.9%
BHP Group Ltd keeps about 19.0% of each sales dollar as net profit. Return on equity is 20.9% and return on invested capital about 22.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$21.54B
Net Debt
$9.65B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.5x
Debt / Equity
0.51x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.5x, and operating profit covers interest about 16.7x, with a current ratio of 1.5x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $21.54B of total debt against $11.89B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$18.69B
Free Cash Flow
$9.29B
FCF Margin
18.1%
In the latest year BHP Group Ltd produced about $18.69B of operating cash flow and $9.29B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
3.3%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.24
Total paid (latest FY)
$6.40B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 69% of free cash flow
71% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
20.71x
P/S
4.16x
P/B
2.7x
EV / EBITDA
8.5x
BHP trades at 20.7x trailing earnings (about 23.1x on estimated forward earnings), 4.2x sales, and 2.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.2% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$26.09
Current price
$83.23
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$9.29B
Growth, years 1–5
0.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where BHP sits versus the Materials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How BHP stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 54 rated Materials companies we cover, BHP ranks #28 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (20.7x P/E vs. 20.1x median) with a higher return on equity (20.9% vs. 16.1%) and slower revenue growth (0.7% vs. 7.9%).
P/E vs sector
20.7x
median 20.1x
ROE vs sector
20.9%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
0.7%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#28
of 54 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 54 rated companies among the 78 Materials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$57.05 – $92.16
vs. $83.23 today · implied CAGR -7% – 2%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $52.80B | $54.38B | $56.02B | $57.70B | $59.43B |
| Net income | $9.50B | $9.79B | $10.08B | $10.39B | $10.70B |
| EPS | $3.90 | $4.02 | $4.14 | $4.26 | $4.39 |
| Share price (low) | $50.69 | $52.21 | $53.78 | $55.39 | $57.05 |
| Share price (high) | $81.88 | $84.34 | $86.87 | $89.47 | $92.16 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / -2% | -21% / 1% | -14% / 1% | -10% / 2% | -7% / 2% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for BHP:
- High net margins (19.0%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (20.9%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 3.3% dividend on top of any price gains.
Bear Case
The case against BHP:
- Revenue growth is slow (0.7%), limiting the upside engine.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (0.7%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: BHP Group Ltd is a mega-cap materials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 20.7x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (56/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
BHP's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
BHP — frequently asked questions
Is BHP a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates BHP Group Ltd Neutral (56/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is BHP's rating on The Stocks School?
BHP Group Ltd currently scores 56/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does BHP's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from BHP Group Ltd's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for BHP calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this BHP analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell BHP. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.