RCL Royal Caribbean Group
$277.41
▼ 0.9%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
RCL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 66/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 16.7% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$79.47B
P/E
16.65x
Forward P/E (est.)
12.08x
ROE
45.8%
Revenue Growth
9.8%
EPS Growth
37.9%
Profit Margin
24.4%
FCF Yield
2.8%
Debt / Equity
2.13x
ROIC
24.0%
Interest Coverage
3.5x
Current Ratio
0.21x
Dividend Yield
1.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.3%
Rating Score
66/100
Business Overview
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) is a large-cap company in the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $79.47B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $17.93B in revenue and $4.27B in net profit.
Our model rates RCL Favorable (66/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
24.3% average over the last 3 years
±100.1 pts around -32.0% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 6 of 10 years
24.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what RCL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. RCL trades near $277.41, below its 50-day average ($281.09) and 200-day average ($288.84). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 54 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. RCL's is $14.41 (~5.2% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, RCL found buyers near $266.01 (support) and sellers near $333.39 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $232.10–$366.50. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
85.0%
Revenue moved from $8.50B in 2016 to $17.93B in 2025, a 8.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 9.8% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
50.5%
Operating Margin
27.4%
Net Margin
23.8%
ROE
45.8%
Royal Caribbean Group keeps about 24.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 50.5% gross margin and 27.4% operating margin. Return on equity is 45.8% and return on invested capital about 24.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$6.20B
Net Debt
$5.33B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.08x
Debt / Equity
2.13x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 2.1x, and operating profit covers interest about 3.5x, with a current ratio of 0.2x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $6.20B of total debt against $875.00M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$6.46B
Free Cash Flow
$1.24B
FCF Margin
6.9%
In the latest year Royal Caribbean Group produced about $6.46B of operating cash flow and $1.24B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 2.8% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
1.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$3.50
Total paid (latest FY)
$824.00M
History on record
7 years
dividend uses 67% of free cash flow
19% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 1 year in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 7 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
16.65x
P/S
4.69x
P/B
6.72x
EV / EBITDA
—
RCL trades at 16.7x trailing earnings (about 12.1x on estimated forward earnings), 4.7x sales, and 6.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 7.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$109.54
Current price
$277.41
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.24B
Growth, years 1–5
9.8%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where RCL sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How RCL stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, RCL ranks #10 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (16.7x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a higher return on equity (45.8% vs. 26.2%) and faster revenue growth (9.8% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
16.7x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
45.8%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
9.8%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#10
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$242.00 – $411.40
vs. $277.41 today · implied CAGR -3% – 8%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.73B | $21.70B | $23.87B | $26.26B | $28.88B |
| Net income | $4.73B | $5.21B | $5.73B | $6.30B | $6.93B |
| EPS | $16.53 | $18.18 | $20.00 | $22.00 | $24.20 |
| Share price (low) | $165.29 | $181.82 | $200.00 | $220.00 | $242.00 |
| Share price (high) | $280.99 | $309.09 | $340.00 | $374.00 | $411.40 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -40% / 1% | -19% / 6% | -10% / 7% | -6% / 8% | -3% / 8% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for RCL:
- High net margins (24.4%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (45.8%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (66/100).
Bear Case
The case against RCL:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 2.1x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 2.1x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Royal Caribbean Group is a large-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 16.7x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (66/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 36 Wall Street analysts covering RCL recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
RCL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
RCL — frequently asked questions
Is RCL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Royal Caribbean Group Favorable (66/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is RCL's rating on The Stocks School?
Royal Caribbean Group currently scores 66/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does RCL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Royal Caribbean Group's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for RCL calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this RCL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell RCL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.