NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
$15.13
▼ 1.7%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
NCLH at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 45/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 11.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$9.08B
P/E
12.23x
Forward P/E (est.)
17.17x
ROE
27.0%
Revenue Growth
6.5%
EPS Growth
-28.8%
Profit Margin
5.7%
FCF Yield
7.1%
Debt / Equity
6.61x
ROIC
30.0%
Interest Coverage
2.15x
Current Ratio
0.2x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
45/100
Business Overview
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is a mid-cap company in the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $9.08B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $9.83B in revenue and $423.25M in net profit.
Our model rates NCLH Neutral (45/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
14.1% average over the last 3 years
±141.0 pts around -57.9% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 10 years
30.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NCLH's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NCLH trades near $15.13, below its 50-day average ($18.36) and 200-day average ($20.79). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 55 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NCLH's is $0.97 (~6.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, NCLH found buyers near $17.70 (support) and sellers near $21.95 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $14.53–$27.18. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
97.3%
Revenue moved from $4.87B in 2016 to $9.83B in 2025, a 8.1% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 6.5% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
43.0%
Operating Margin
15.9%
Net Margin
4.3%
ROE
27.0%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings keeps about 5.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 43.0% gross margin and 15.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 27.0% and return on invested capital about 30.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$1.55B
Net Debt
$1.33B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.85x
Debt / Equity
6.61x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 6.6x, and operating profit covers interest about 2.1x, with a current ratio of 0.2x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $1.55B of total debt against $218.10M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$2.09B
Free Cash Flow
-$1.17B
FCF Margin
-11.9%
In the latest year Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings produced about $2.09B of operating cash flow but negative free cash flow as it invested heavily. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 7.1% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
12.23x
P/S
0.95x
P/B
3.42x
EV / EBITDA
—
NCLH trades at 12.2x trailing earnings (about 17.2x on estimated forward earnings), 0.9x sales, and 3.4x book value. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where NCLH sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How NCLH stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, NCLH ranks #54 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (12.2x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a higher return on equity (27.0% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (6.5% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
12.2x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
27.0%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
6.5%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#54
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$6.43 – $11.02
vs. $15.13 today · implied CAGR -16% – -6%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.52B | $11.25B | $12.04B | $12.88B | $13.78B |
| Net income | $420.62M | $450.06M | $481.57M | $515.28M | $551.35M |
| EPS | $0.70 | $0.75 | $0.80 | $0.86 | $0.92 |
| Share price (low) | $4.91 | $5.25 | $5.62 | $6.01 | $6.43 |
| Share price (high) | $8.41 | $9.00 | $9.63 | $10.30 | $11.02 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -68% / -44% | -41% / -23% | -28% / -14% | -21% / -9% | -16% / -6% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for NCLH:
- Strong return on equity (27.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~7.1%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
The case against NCLH:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 6.6x) adds financial risk.
- Interest coverage is thin (2.1x), so debt costs bite.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 6.6x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is a mid-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 12.2x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (45/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 34 Wall Street analysts covering NCLH recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-9 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
NCLH's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
NCLH — frequently asked questions
Is NCLH a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Neutral (45/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NCLH's rating on The Stocks School?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings currently scores 45/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NCLH's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NCLH calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NCLH analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NCLH. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.