ORLY O’Reilly Automotive
$89.21
▲ 0.8%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
ORLY at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 42/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 1.7% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$74.79B
P/E
28.51x
Forward P/E (est.)
40.73x
ROE
423.4%
Revenue Growth
7.9%
EPS Growth
-86.8%
Profit Margin
14.3%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
29.45x
ROIC
119.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.75x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.7%
Rating Score
42/100
Business Overview
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is a large-cap company in the Automotive Retail industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $74.79B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $17.78B in revenue and $2.54B in net profit.
Our model rates ORLY Neutral (42/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
51.3% average over the last 3 years
±0.7 pts around 52.1% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
119.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ORLY's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ORLY trades near $89.21, below its 50-day average ($90.74) and 200-day average ($94.83). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 50 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ORLY's is $2.57 (~2.9% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, ORLY found buyers near $84.76 (support) and sellers near $93.52 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $84.76–$108.72. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.4× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
7.5%
Revenue moved from $8.59B in 2016 to $17.78B in 2025, a 8.4% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 7.9% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
51.6%
Operating Margin
19.5%
Net Margin
14.3%
ROE
423.4%
O’Reilly Automotive keeps about 14.3% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 51.6% gross margin and 19.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 423.4% and return on invested capital about 119.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$4.12B
Net Debt
$3.86B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.12x
Debt / Equity
29.45x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 29.4x, with a current ratio of 0.8x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $4.12B of total debt against $262.18M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$2.76B
Free Cash Flow
$1.59B
FCF Margin
9.0%
In the latest year O’Reilly Automotive produced about $2.76B of operating cash flow and $1.59B of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
28.51x
P/S
4.24x
P/B
—
EV / EBITDA
—
ORLY trades at 28.5x trailing earnings (about 40.7x on estimated forward earnings), 4.2x sales. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$42.15
Current price
$89.21
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.59B
Growth, years 1–5
7.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where ORLY sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How ORLY stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, ORLY ranks #62 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (28.5x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a higher return on equity (423.4% vs. 26.2%) and faster revenue growth (7.9% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
28.5x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
423.4%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
7.9%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#62
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$74.17 – $126.53
vs. $89.21 today · implied CAGR -4% – 7%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.20B | $20.74B | $22.40B | $24.19B | $26.13B |
| Net income | $2.69B | $2.90B | $3.14B | $3.39B | $3.66B |
| EPS | $3.21 | $3.46 | $3.74 | $4.04 | $4.36 |
| Share price (low) | $54.52 | $58.88 | $63.59 | $68.68 | $74.17 |
| Share price (high) | $93.00 | $100.44 | $108.48 | $117.16 | $126.53 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / 4% | -19% / 6% | -11% / 7% | -6% / 7% | -4% / 7% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for ORLY:
- Strong return on equity (423.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Consumer Discretionary, it brings scale and a long operating history.
Bear Case
The case against ORLY:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 29.4x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 29.4x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: O’Reilly Automotive is a large-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 28.5x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (42/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 36 Wall Street analysts covering ORLY recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ORLY's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
ORLY — frequently asked questions
Is ORLY a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates O’Reilly Automotive Neutral (42/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ORLY's rating on The Stocks School?
O’Reilly Automotive currently scores 42/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ORLY's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from O’Reilly Automotive's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ORLY calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ORLY analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ORLY. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.