NIO NIO Inc
$3.43
▼ 2.0%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
NIO at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 30/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 43.3% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$11.38B
P/E
—
Forward P/E (est.)
—
ROE
-99.5%
Revenue Growth
48.8%
EPS Growth
—
Profit Margin
-9.1%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
4.57x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.98x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
30/100
Business Overview
NIO Inc (NIO) is a large-cap NYSE-listed company in the Automobiles industry, within the Consumer Discretionary sector, with a market value around $11.38B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.25B in revenue.
Our model rates NIO Weak (30/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (8 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
9.7% average over the last 3 years
±11.0 pts around 6.6% across 8 years
grew in 7 of the last 7 year-over-year periods
positive in 1 of 8 years
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NIO's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NIO trades near $3.43, below its 50-day average ($5.59) and 200-day average ($5.76). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 44 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NIO's is $0.21 (~6.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, NIO found buyers near $4.66 (support) and sellers near $5.61 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $3.38–$8.02. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.6× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
24.7%
Revenue moved from $693.16M in 2018 to $12.25B in 2025, a 50.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 48.8% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
13.9%
Operating Margin
-16.0%
Net Margin
-9.1%
ROE
-99.5%
NIO Inc keeps about -9.1% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 13.9% gross margin and -16.0% operating margin. Return on equity is -99.5%. The company is currently unprofitable on a net basis.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$114.60M
Net Debt
-$1.50B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
4.57x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 4.6x, with a current ratio of 1.0x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $114.60M of total debt against $1.61B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$418.97M
Free Cash Flow
-$430.17M
FCF Margin
-3.5%
In the latest year NIO Inc produced about $418.97M of operating cash flow but negative free cash flow as it invested heavily. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
—
P/S
0.88x
P/B
18.13x
EV / EBITDA
—
NIO trades at n/a trailing earnings, 0.9x sales, and 18.1x book value. With no positive trailing earnings, value it on sales, cash flow, or growth rather than P/E.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where NIO sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How NIO stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, NIO ranks #71 by our overall rating.
P/E vs sector
—
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
-99.5%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
48.8%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#71
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$8.52 – $14.19
vs. $3.43 today · implied CAGR 20% – 33%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.76B | $25.75B | $37.34B | $54.14B | $78.51B |
| Net income | $532.80M | $772.56M | $1.12B | $1.62B | $2.36B |
| EPS | $0.16 | $0.23 | $0.34 | $0.49 | $0.71 |
| Share price (low) | $1.93 | $2.79 | $4.05 | $5.87 | $8.52 |
| Share price (high) | $3.21 | $4.66 | $6.75 | $9.79 | $14.19 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -44% / -6% | -10% / 17% | 6% / 25% | 14% / 30% | 20% / 33% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions. Growth, margin or P/E data is missing for this stock, so some starting values above are placeholders rather than measurements.
Bull Case
The case for NIO:
- Revenue is growing 48.8% a year, a sign of real demand.
Bear Case
The case against NIO:
- Thin net margins (-9.1%) leave little room for error.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 4.6x) adds financial risk.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (30/100).
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 4.6x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Margin risk — thin profitability (-9.1%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: NIO Inc is a large-cap consumer discretionary business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at n/a earnings, which our model scores Weak (30/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
NIO's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
NIO — frequently asked questions
Is NIO a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates NIO Inc Weak (30/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NIO's rating on The Stocks School?
NIO Inc currently scores 30/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NIO's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from NIO Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NIO calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NIO analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NIO. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.