NVO Novo Nordisk A/S
$38.74
▼ 1.2%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
NVO at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Strong · 76/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 28.8% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$210.12B
P/E
9.53x
Forward P/E (est.)
8.16x
ROE
66.4%
Revenue Growth
8.1%
EPS Growth
16.7%
Profit Margin
37.2%
FCF Yield
37.3%
Debt / Equity
0.67x
ROIC
32.0%
Interest Coverage
30.34x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Dividend Yield
3.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.7%
Rating Score
76/100
Business Overview
Novo Nordisk invented the GLP-1 category and still splits the obesity/diabetes duopoly with Eli Lilly, yet after losing share to Mounjaro and disappointing on next-generation data, its multiple compressed to ~12x earnings — pharma-average pricing for a franchise still growing revenue with 45% operating margins and a 3.6% dividend yield.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (7 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
83.4% average over the last 3 years
±1.1 pts around 83.5% across 7 years
grew in 6 of the last 6 year-over-year periods
positive in 7 of 7 years
32.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Downtrend — price ($38.74) is below the 50-day ($44.68) and 200-day ($47.79) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 4.1
Trade levels
Entry zone
$41.00 – $38.74
Stop loss
$40.29
Target 1
$41.58
Target 2
$43.71
Target 3
$45.84
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is overbought (77); the MACD histogram is positive (upward momentum). Downtrend — price ($38.74) is below the 50-day ($44.68) and 200-day ($47.79) averages. ATR(14) is $1.42 (~3.7% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $41.00 and resistance near $50.90; the 52-week range is $35.12–$71.80.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 8.1%, net margin near 37.2%, ROE roughly 66.4%; shares trade at 10x earnings. Quality score: 76/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $1.42 (~3.7%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average volume — below average, so conviction is light.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $50.90 or a loss of $41.00.
Bullish scenario
Duopoly economics in the era's biggest drug market, at a single-digit forward multiple if growth merely stabilizes.
Bearish scenario
Lilly's tirzepatide is clinically stronger on current data, and Novo's pipeline answers have underwhelmed so far.
Invalidation
A daily close below $40.29 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NVO's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NVO trades near $38.74, below its 50-day average ($44.68) and 200-day average ($47.79). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 77 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NVO's is $1.42 (~3.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, NVO found buyers near $41.00 (support) and sellers near $50.90 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $35.12–$71.80. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
21.7%
Revenue grew from $17.69B in 2019 to $44.81B in 2025, a 16.8% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 8.1% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Profitability
Gross Margin
81.0%
Operating Margin
41.3%
Net Margin
33.1%
ROE
66.4%
Gross margin runs near 81.8% with operating margin around 45.3% and net margin near 37.2%. Return on equity of roughly 66.4% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$17.25B
Net Debt
$13.41B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.72x
Debt / Equity
0.67x
Interest-bearing debt is about 4.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.67x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$17.27B
Free Cash Flow
$8.55B
FCF Margin
19.1%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 37.3%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
3.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.70
Total paid (latest FY)
$7.51B
History on record
7 years
dividend uses 88% of free cash flow
51% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 6 years in a row
no cuts in the last 7 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
9.53x
P/S
4.76x
P/B
5.87x
EV / EBITDA
10.83x
Shares trade at roughly 10x trailing earnings (11x forward), 4.8x sales, and 11x EV/EBITDA. That is a reasonable-to-cheap multiple relative to the broader market. Our internal rating is Strong.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$38.74
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$8.55B
Growth, years 1–5
8.1%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where NVO sits versus the Health Care companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How NVO stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 83 rated Health Care companies we cover, NVO ranks #5 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (9.5x P/E vs. 26.1x median) with a higher return on equity (66.4% vs. 14.1%) and faster revenue growth (8.1% vs. 7.6%).
P/E vs sector
9.5x
median 26.1x
ROE vs sector
66.4%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
8.1%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#5
of 83 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 83 rated companies among the 324 Health Care stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$24.04 – $40.06
vs. $38.74 today · implied CAGR -9% – 1%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.40B | $52.27B | $56.45B | $60.97B | $65.85B |
| Net income | $15.97B | $17.25B | $18.63B | $20.12B | $21.73B |
| EPS | $2.94 | $3.18 | $3.43 | $3.71 | $4.01 |
| Share price (low) | $17.67 | $19.08 | $20.61 | $22.26 | $24.04 |
| Share price (high) | $29.45 | $31.80 | $34.35 | $37.10 | $40.06 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -54% / -24% | -30% / -9% | -19% / -4% | -13% / -1% | -9% / 1% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- Duopoly economics in the era's biggest drug market, at a single-digit forward multiple if growth merely stabilizes.
- 82% gross margins, 66% ROE, and decades of metabolic-disease expertise.
- The valuation already prices in share loss to Lilly — modest good news moves it.
Bear Case
- Lilly's tirzepatide is clinically stronger on current data, and Novo's pipeline answers have underwhelmed so far.
- 8% revenue growth is a hard comedown from the Wegovy boom years, and estimates may still be falling.
- Danish-krone dividend and ADR mechanics add friction for US holders.
Key Risks
- Continued market-share losses in obesity.
- US drug-pricing policy targeting GLP-1 reimbursement.
- Pipeline readouts failing to match Lilly's next generation.
Final Investment Thesis
Novo is the value side of the obesity duopoly: a world-class franchise priced for stagnation. The monitorables are US prescription share and the next pipeline readouts. Suited to patient investors who prefer paying 12x for a wounded leader over 45x for a perfect one.
Analyst Ratings
What 36 Wall Street analysts covering NVO recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
NVO's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
NVO — frequently asked questions
Is NVO a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Novo Nordisk A/S Strong (76/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NVO's rating on The Stocks School?
Novo Nordisk A/S currently scores 76/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NVO's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Novo Nordisk A/S's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NVO calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NVO analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NVO. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.