LLY Eli Lilly and Company
$1,257.56
▲ 0.5%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
LLY at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 69/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 39.9% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$1.14T
P/E
47.09x
Forward P/E (est.)
33.64x
ROE
101.3%
Revenue Growth
47.4%
EPS Growth
128.8%
Profit Margin
35.0%
FCF Yield
0.6%
Debt / Equity
1.6x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.35x
Dividend Yield
0.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
69/100
Business Overview
Lilly's incretin franchise (Mounjaro for diabetes, Zepbound for obesity) has redefined what growth looks like in big pharma: revenue jumped from ~$34B to ~$65B in two years, with 47% growth and EPS more than doubling. The obesity market is early — most eligible patients aren't yet treated — and Lilly's pipeline (oral GLP-1s, next-generation combinations) is built to defend the lead.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Uptrend — price ($1,257.56) is above the 50-day ($1,054.92) and 200-day ($985.02) averages.
Setup type
Trend-continuation swing
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 0.5
Trade levels
Entry zone
$1,211.46 – $1,257.56
Stop loss
$1,060.01
Target 1
$1,326.72
Target 2
$1,392.03
Target 3
$1,468.87
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is firm (60); the MACD histogram is positive (upward momentum). Uptrend — price ($1,257.56) is above the 50-day ($1,054.92) and 200-day ($985.02) averages. ATR(14) is $38.42 (~3.1% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $1,079.22 and resistance near $1,238.00; the 52-week range is $623.78–$1,238.00.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 47.4%, net margin near 35.0%, ROE roughly 101.3%; shares trade at 47x earnings. Quality score: 69/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $38.42 (~3.1%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $1,238.00 or a loss of $1,079.22.
Bullish scenario
The obesity/metabolic market may be the largest drug opportunity ever, and Lilly shares a near-duopoly with Novo Nordisk.
Bearish scenario
At ~45x earnings, the market already assumes years of dominance; any pipeline stumble is expensive.
Invalidation
A daily close below $1,060.01 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what LLY's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. LLY trades near $1,257.56, above its 50-day average ($1,054.92) and 200-day average ($985.02). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 60 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. LLY's is $38.42 (~3.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, LLY found buyers near $1,079.22 (support) and sellers near $1,238.00 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $623.78–$1,238.00. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
23.2%
Revenue grew from $21.22B in 2016 to $65.18B in 2025, a 13.3% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 47.4% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
—
Net Margin
31.7%
ROE
101.3%
Gross margin runs near 82.8% with operating margin around 43.6% and net margin near 35.0%. Return on equity of roughly 101.3% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$29.47B
Net Debt
$20.52B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
1.6x
Interest-bearing debt is about 3.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.60x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$16.81B
Free Cash Flow
$16.81B
FCF Margin
25.8%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 0.6%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$6.23
Total paid (latest FY)
$5.38B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 32% of free cash flow
26% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
47.09x
P/S
16.3x
P/B
42.9x
EV / EBITDA
35x
Shares trade at roughly 47x trailing earnings (32x forward), 16.3x sales, and 35x EV/EBITDA. That is a premium multiple that prices in continued high growth — execution risk is elevated. Our internal rating is Favorable.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where LLY sits versus the Health Care companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How LLY stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 83 rated Health Care companies we cover, LLY ranks #10 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (47.1x P/E vs. 26.1x median) with a higher return on equity (101.3% vs. 14.1%) and faster revenue growth (47.4% vs. 7.6%).
P/E vs sector
47.1x
median 26.1x
ROE vs sector
101.3%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
47.4%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#10
of 83 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 83 rated companies among the 324 Health Care stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$4,117.81 – $6,912.04
vs. $1,257.56 today · implied CAGR 27% – 41%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.51B | $137.04B | $198.71B | $288.12B | $417.78B |
| Net income | $30.24B | $43.85B | $63.59B | $92.20B | $133.69B |
| EPS | $33.27 | $48.24 | $69.95 | $101.42 | $147.06 |
| Share price (low) | $931.52 | $1,350.71 | $1,958.53 | $2,839.87 | $4,117.81 |
| Share price (high) | $1,563.63 | $2,267.26 | $3,287.53 | $4,766.92 | $6,912.04 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -26% / 24% | 4% / 34% | 16% / 38% | 23% / 40% | 27% / 41% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- The obesity/metabolic market may be the largest drug opportunity ever, and Lilly shares a near-duopoly with Novo Nordisk.
- 83% gross margins and surging EPS (+129%) as manufacturing scales.
- A deep late-stage pipeline extends the franchise beyond the current patents.
Bear Case
- At ~45x earnings, the market already assumes years of dominance; any pipeline stumble is expensive.
- Supply constraints and pricing pressure (including compounded copies and government price negotiation) could cap the ramp.
- Debt-to-equity of 1.6 reflects heavy manufacturing buildout spending.
Key Risks
- Competitive data from Novo Nordisk or new entrants.
- Drug-pricing reform and reimbursement limits on obesity treatment.
- Manufacturing capacity execution.
Final Investment Thesis
Lilly is the premium way to own the obesity-treatment era — extraordinary growth, priced accordingly. The monitorables are incretin script trends and pipeline readouts. Suited to growth investors who understand that at this multiple, the science has to keep winning.
Analyst Ratings
What 38 Wall Street analysts covering LLY recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
LLY's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
LLY — frequently asked questions
Is LLY a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Eli Lilly and Company Favorable (69/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is LLY's rating on The Stocks School?
Eli Lilly and Company currently scores 69/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does LLY's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Eli Lilly and Company's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for LLY calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this LLY analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell LLY. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.