NVS Novartis AG
$150.71
▲ 0.2%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
NVS at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 67/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 27.5% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$261.56B
P/E
20.88x
Forward P/E (est.)
19.11x
ROE
31.7%
Revenue Growth
5.8%
EPS Growth
9.3%
Profit Margin
24.1%
FCF Yield
4.2%
Debt / Equity
0.77x
ROIC
19.0%
Interest Coverage
15.42x
Current Ratio
1.12x
Dividend Yield
2.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
2.1%
Rating Score
67/100
Business Overview
Novartis AG (NVS) is a mega-cap NYSE-listed company in the Pharmaceuticals industry, within the Health Care sector, with a market value around $261.56B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $54.53B in revenue and $13.98B in net profit.
Our model rates NVS Favorable (67/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
77.1% average over the last 3 years
±3.7 pts around 73.2% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
19.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NVS's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NVS trades near $150.71, above its 50-day average ($149.59) and 200-day average ($143.65). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 54 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NVS's is $3.34 (~2.2% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, NVS found buyers near $146.39 (support) and sellers near $160.57 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $112.34–$170.46. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.5× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
6.3%
Revenue moved from $48.52B in 2016 to $54.53B in 2025, a 1.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 5.8% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
78.8%
Operating Margin
32.4%
Net Margin
25.6%
ROE
31.7%
Novartis AG keeps about 24.1% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 78.8% gross margin and 32.4% operating margin. Return on equity is 31.7% and return on invested capital about 19.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$28.73B
Net Debt
$17.29B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.98x
Debt / Equity
0.77x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.8x, and operating profit covers interest about 15.4x, with a current ratio of 1.1x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $28.73B of total debt against $11.44B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$19.14B
Free Cash Flow
$17.60B
FCF Margin
32.3%
In the latest year Novartis AG produced about $19.14B of operating cash flow and $17.60B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 4.2% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
2.9%
Total paid (latest FY)
$7.82B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 44% of free cash flow
56% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
20.88x
P/S
5.17x
P/B
5.47x
EV / EBITDA
—
NVS trades at 20.9x trailing earnings (about 19.1x on estimated forward earnings), 5.2x sales, and 5.5x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 2.1% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$174.96
Current price
$150.71
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$17.60B
Growth, years 1–5
5.8%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where NVS sits versus the Health Care companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How NVS stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 83 rated Health Care companies we cover, NVS ranks #13 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (20.9x P/E vs. 26.1x median) with a higher return on equity (31.7% vs. 14.1%) and slower revenue growth (5.8% vs. 7.6%).
P/E vs sector
20.9x
median 26.1x
ROE vs sector
31.7%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
5.8%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#13
of 83 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 83 rated companies among the 324 Health Care stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$142.13 – $229.59
vs. $150.71 today · implied CAGR -1% – 9%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $57.80B | $61.27B | $64.95B | $68.85B | $72.98B |
| Net income | $15.03B | $15.93B | $16.89B | $17.90B | $18.97B |
| EPS | $8.66 | $9.18 | $9.73 | $10.31 | $10.93 |
| Share price (low) | $112.58 | $119.33 | $126.49 | $134.08 | $142.13 |
| Share price (high) | $181.86 | $192.77 | $204.33 | $216.59 | $229.59 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -25% / 21% | -11% / 13% | -6% / 11% | -3% / 9% | -1% / 9% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for NVS:
- High net margins (24.1%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (31.7%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~4.2%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 2.9% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (67/100).
Bear Case
The case against NVS:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Novartis AG is a mega-cap health care business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 20.9x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (67/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 34 Wall Street analysts covering NVS recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
NVS's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
NVS — frequently asked questions
Is NVS a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Novartis AG Favorable (67/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NVS's rating on The Stocks School?
Novartis AG currently scores 67/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NVS's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Novartis AG's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NVS calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NVS analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NVS. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.