TAK
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd
$17.18
▲ 0.8%Updated Today 3:42 PM ET
TAK at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Weak · 35/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 9.8% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$56.92B
P/E
43.6x
Forward P/E (est.)
31.14x
ROE
2.6%
Revenue Growth
-1.7%
EPS Growth
82.8%
Profit Margin
4.3%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
0.63x
ROIC
2.0%
Interest Coverage
2.49x
Current Ratio
1.01x
Dividend Yield
3.7%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-1.0%
Rating Score
35/100
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (TAK) is a large-cap company in the Pharmaceuticals industry, part of the Health Care sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $56.92B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $30.70B in revenue and $723.12M in net profit.
Our model rates TAK Weak (35/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
8.2% average over the last 3 years
±4.0 pts around 10.1% across 9 years
grew in 7 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
2.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TAK's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TAK trades near $17.18, above its 50-day average ($16.12) and 200-day average ($16.05). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 67 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TAK's is $0.29 (~1.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month TAK found buyers near $15.34 (support) and sellers near $17.07 (resistance); its 52-week range is $12.99–$18.90. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
9.4%
Revenue moved from $11.60B in 2017 to $30.70B in 2025, a 12.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 1.7% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
65.1%
Operating Margin
7.5%
Net Margin
2.4%
ROE
2.6%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd keeps about 4.3% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 65.1% gross margin and 7.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 2.6% and return on invested capital about 2.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$26.57B
Net Debt
$23.99B
Net Debt / EBITDA
10.45x
Debt / Equity
0.63x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.6x, and operating profit covers interest about 2.5x, with a current ratio of 1.0x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $26.57B of total debt against $2.58B of cash.
Operating CF
$7.08B
Free Cash Flow
$5.74B
FCF Margin
18.7%
In the latest year Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd produced about $7.08B of operating cash flow and $5.74B of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
3.7%
Total paid (latest FY)
$2.03B
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 35% of free cash flow
280% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
no cuts in the last 9 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
43.6x
P/S
1.86x
P/B
1.16x
EV / EBITDA
10.94x
TAK trades at 43.6x trailing earnings (about 31.1x on estimated forward earnings), 1.9x sales, and 1.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -1.0% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$45.80
Current price
$17.18
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$5.74B
Growth, years 1–5
-1.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where TAK sits versus its Health Care sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How TAK stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Health Care sector (324 S&P 500 companies), TAK ranks #70 of 324 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (43.6x P/E vs. 25.4x median) with a lower return on equity (2.6% vs. 14.1%) and slower revenue growth (-1.7% vs. 7.6%).
P/E vs sector
43.6x
median 25.4x
ROE vs sector
2.6%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
-1.7%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#70
of 324 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 324 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $17.18 today · expected CAGR -13% – -4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.62B | $32.57B | $33.54B | $34.55B | $35.59B |
| Net income | $948.52M | $976.97M | $1.01B | $1.04B | $1.07B |
| EPS | $0.29 | $0.29 | $0.30 | $0.31 | $0.32 |
| Share price (low) | $7.44 | $7.67 | $7.90 | $8.13 | $8.38 |
| Share price (high) | $12.60 | $12.97 | $13.36 | $13.76 | $14.18 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -57% / -27% | -33% / -13% | -23% / -8% | -17% / -5% | -13% / -4% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for TAK:
- Pays a 3.7% dividend on top of any price gains.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Health Care, it brings scale and a long operating history.
The case against TAK:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-1.7%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (4.3%) leave little room for error.
- Interest coverage is thin (2.5x), so debt costs bite.
- A rich 43.6x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (35/100).
Valuation risk — at 43.6x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-1.7%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (4.3%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is a large-cap health care business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 43.6x earnings, which our model scores Weak (35/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 19 Wall Street analysts covering TAK recommend (July 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+11 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
TAK's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
TAK — frequently asked questions
Is TAK a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd Weak (35/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is TAK's rating on The Stocks School?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd currently scores 35/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does TAK's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for TAK calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this TAK analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell TAK. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.