MLI Mueller Industries Inc
$60.19
▼ 0.7%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
MLI at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Strong · 82/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 37.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$12.49B
P/E
14.76x
Forward P/E (est.)
10.58x
ROE
27.0%
Revenue Growth
11.5%
EPS Growth
39.5%
Profit Margin
19.4%
FCF Yield
10.4%
Debt / Equity
0x
ROIC
21.0%
Interest Coverage
785.05x
Current Ratio
4.78x
Dividend Yield
1.2%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.3%
Rating Score
82/100
Business Overview
Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) is a large-cap NYSE-listed company in the Machinery industry, within the Industrials sector, with a market value around $12.49B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $4.18B in revenue and $765.19M in net profit.
Our model rates MLI Strong (82/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
21.8% average over the last 3 years
±6.8 pts around 14.4% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 10 years
21.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MLI's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MLI trades near $60.19, around its 50-day average ($66.63) and 200-day average ($59.18). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 13 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MLI's is $2.55 (~4.2% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, MLI found buyers near $55.53 (support) and sellers near $70.95 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $40.69–$70.95. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
2.6%
Revenue moved from $2.06B in 2016 to $4.18B in 2025, a 8.2% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 11.5% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
29.7%
Operating Margin
22.9%
Net Margin
18.3%
ROE
27.0%
Mueller Industries Inc keeps about 19.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 29.7% gross margin and 22.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 27.0% and return on invested capital about 21.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$2.74M
Net Debt
-$1.39B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-1.45x
Debt / Equity
0x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, and operating profit covers interest about 785.0x, with a current ratio of 4.8x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $2.74M of total debt against $1.39B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$755.44M
Free Cash Flow
$686.64M
FCF Margin
16.4%
In the latest year Mueller Industries Inc produced about $755.44M of operating cash flow and $686.64M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 10.4% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
1.2%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$109.05M
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 16% of free cash flow
14% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 6 years in a row
no cuts in the last 9 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
14.76x
P/S
2.99x
P/B
4.07x
EV / EBITDA
10.82x
MLI trades at 14.8x trailing earnings (about 10.6x on estimated forward earnings), 3.0x sales, and 4.1x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$81.25
Current price
$60.19
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$686.64M
Growth, years 1–5
11.5%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where MLI sits versus the Industrials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How MLI stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 142 rated Industrials companies we cover, MLI ranks #1 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (14.8x P/E vs. 30.5x median) with a higher return on equity (27.0% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (11.5% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
14.8x
median 30.5x
ROE vs sector
27.0%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
11.5%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#1
of 142 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 142 rated companies among the 273 Industrials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$57.47 – $95.78
vs. $60.19 today · implied CAGR -1% – 10%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.68B | $5.24B | $5.87B | $6.58B | $7.36B |
| Net income | $842.40M | $943.48M | $1.06B | $1.18B | $1.33B |
| EPS | $4.06 | $4.55 | $5.09 | $5.70 | $6.39 |
| Share price (low) | $36.52 | $40.91 | $45.81 | $51.31 | $57.47 |
| Share price (high) | $60.87 | $68.18 | $76.36 | $85.52 | $95.78 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / 1% | -18% / 6% | -9% / 8% | -4% / 9% | -1% / 10% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for MLI:
- Revenue is growing 11.5% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (19.4%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (27.0%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~10.4%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
- Our model's overall read is Strong (82/100).
Bear Case
The case against MLI:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Mueller Industries Inc is a large-cap industrials business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 14.8x earnings, which our model scores Strong (82/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 6 Wall Street analysts covering MLI recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+17 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
MLI's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
MLI — frequently asked questions
Is MLI a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Mueller Industries Inc Strong (82/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is MLI's rating on The Stocks School?
Mueller Industries Inc currently scores 82/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does MLI's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Mueller Industries Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for MLI calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this MLI analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MLI. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.