GGG Graco Inc
$81.91
▲ 0.2%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
GGG at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 66/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 15.2% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$12.49B
P/E
24.19x
Forward P/E (est.)
22.36x
ROE
19.7%
Revenue Growth
4.6%
EPS Growth
8.2%
Profit Margin
23.0%
FCF Yield
4.6%
Debt / Equity
0.01x
ROIC
20.0%
Interest Coverage
120.36x
Current Ratio
2.99x
Dividend Yield
1.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.7%
Rating Score
66/100
Business Overview
Graco Inc (GGG) is a large-cap NYSE-listed company in the Machinery industry, within the Industrials sector, with a market value around $12.49B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $2.24B in revenue and $521.84M in net profit.
Our model rates GGG Favorable (66/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
52.8% average over the last 3 years
±1.2 pts around 52.5% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
20.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what GGG's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. GGG trades near $81.91, around its 50-day average ($76.41) and 200-day average ($83.16). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 54 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. GGG's is $1.39 (~1.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, GGG found buyers near $73.15 (support) and sellers near $77.12 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $73.15–$95.69. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.2× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
3.0%
Revenue moved from $1.33B in 2016 to $2.24B in 2025, a 6.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (4.6%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
52.5%
Operating Margin
27.9%
Net Margin
23.3%
ROE
19.7%
Graco Inc keeps about 23.0% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 52.5% gross margin and 27.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 19.7% and return on invested capital about 20.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$1.62M
Net Debt
-$505.95M
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.81x
Debt / Equity
0.01x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, and operating profit covers interest about 120.4x, with a current ratio of 3.0x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $1.62M of total debt against $507.57M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$683.59M
Free Cash Flow
$637.92M
FCF Margin
28.5%
In the latest year Graco Inc produced about $683.59M of operating cash flow and $637.92M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 4.6% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
1.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.12
Total paid (latest FY)
$183.35M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 29% of free cash flow
35% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
24.19x
P/S
5.58x
P/B
5.21x
EV / EBITDA
16.36x
GGG trades at 24.2x trailing earnings (about 22.4x on estimated forward earnings), 5.6x sales, and 5.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$70.00
Current price
$81.91
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$637.92M
Growth, years 1–5
4.6%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where GGG sits versus the Industrials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How GGG stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 142 rated Industrials companies we cover, GGG ranks #11 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (24.2x P/E vs. 30.5x median) with a higher return on equity (19.7% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (4.6% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
24.2x
median 30.5x
ROE vs sector
19.7%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
4.6%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#11
of 142 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 142 rated companies among the 273 Industrials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$60.29 – $103.36
vs. $81.91 today · implied CAGR -6% – 5%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.35B | $2.47B | $2.59B | $2.72B | $2.85B |
| Net income | $540.14M | $567.15M | $595.50M | $625.28M | $656.54M |
| EPS | $3.54 | $3.72 | $3.91 | $4.10 | $4.31 |
| Share price (low) | $49.60 | $52.08 | $54.69 | $57.42 | $60.29 |
| Share price (high) | $85.03 | $89.28 | $93.75 | $98.43 | $103.36 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / 4% | -20% / 4% | -13% / 5% | -8% / 5% | -6% / 5% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for GGG:
- High net margins (23.0%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (19.7%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~4.6%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (66/100).
Bear Case
The case against GGG:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Graco Inc is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 24.2x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (66/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 16 Wall Street analysts covering GGG recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-6 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
GGG's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
GGG — frequently asked questions
Is GGG a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Graco Inc Favorable (66/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is GGG's rating on The Stocks School?
Graco Inc currently scores 66/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does GGG's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Graco Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for GGG calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this GGG analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell GGG. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.