CSX CSX Corporation
$48.46
▼ 0.5%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
CSX at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 47/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 41.5% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$90.84B
P/E
29.52x
Forward P/E (est.)
30.3x
ROE
23.5%
Revenue Growth
-0.9%
EPS Growth
-2.6%
Profit Margin
21.6%
FCF Yield
5.7%
Debt / Equity
1.43x
ROIC
20.0%
Interest Coverage
8.28x
Current Ratio
0.82x
Dividend Yield
1.2%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.0%
Rating Score
47/100
Business Overview
CSX Corporation (CSX) is a large-cap company in the Rail Transportation industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $90.84B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $14.09B in revenue and $2.89B in net profit.
Our model rates CSX Neutral (47/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
35.2% average over the last 3 years
±4.4 pts around 37.6% across 10 years
grew in 4 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
20.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what CSX's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. CSX trades near $48.46, above its 50-day average ($46.08) and 200-day average ($39.75). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 61 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. CSX's is $0.99 (~2.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, CSX found buyers near $45.15 (support) and sellers near $49.21 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $31.80–$49.21. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
3.0%
Revenue moved from $11.07B in 2016 to $14.09B in 2025, a 2.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 0.9% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
71.5%
Operating Margin
32.1%
Net Margin
20.5%
ROE
23.5%
CSX Corporation keeps about 21.6% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 71.5% gross margin and 32.1% operating margin. Return on equity is 23.5% and return on invested capital about 20.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$9.83B
Net Debt
$7.87B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.74x
Debt / Equity
1.43x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.4x, and operating profit covers interest about 8.3x, with a current ratio of 0.8x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $9.83B of total debt against $1.96B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$4.61B
Free Cash Flow
$1.71B
FCF Margin
12.1%
In the latest year CSX Corporation produced about $4.61B of operating cash flow and $1.71B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 5.7% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
1.2%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.52
Total paid (latest FY)
$972.00M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 57% of free cash flow
34% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
29.52x
P/S
6.18x
P/B
5.3x
EV / EBITDA
—
CSX trades at 29.5x trailing earnings (about 30.3x on estimated forward earnings), 6.2x sales, and 5.3x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 7.0% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$11.98
Current price
$48.46
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.71B
Growth, years 1–5
-0.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where CSX sits versus the Industrials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How CSX stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 142 rated Industrials companies we cover, CSX ranks #91 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (29.5x P/E vs. 30.5x median) with a higher return on equity (23.5% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (-0.9% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
29.5x
median 30.5x
ROE vs sector
23.5%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
-0.9%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#91
of 142 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 142 rated companies among the 273 Industrials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$32.94 – $54.90
vs. $48.46 today · implied CAGR -7% – 3%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.51B | $14.95B | $15.40B | $15.86B | $16.34B |
| Net income | $3.05B | $3.14B | $3.23B | $3.33B | $3.43B |
| EPS | $1.63 | $1.67 | $1.72 | $1.78 | $1.83 |
| Share price (low) | $29.27 | $30.15 | $31.05 | $31.98 | $32.94 |
| Share price (high) | $48.78 | $50.24 | $51.75 | $53.30 | $54.90 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -40% / 1% | -21% / 2% | -14% / 2% | -10% / 2% | -7% / 3% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for CSX:
- High net margins (21.6%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (23.5%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~5.7%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
The case against CSX:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-0.9%), limiting the upside engine.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.4x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-0.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: CSX Corporation is a large-cap industrials business with shrinking revenue, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 29.5x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (47/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
CSX's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
CSX — frequently asked questions
Is CSX a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates CSX Corporation Neutral (47/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is CSX's rating on The Stocks School?
CSX Corporation currently scores 47/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does CSX's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from CSX Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for CSX calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this CSX analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell CSX. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.