UNP Union Pacific Corporation
$287.28
▼ 0.5%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
UNP at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 63/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 15.7% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$167.58B
P/E
22.9x
Forward P/E (est.)
20.93x
ROE
40.4%
Revenue Growth
1.9%
EPS Growth
9.4%
Profit Margin
29.2%
FCF Yield
5.3%
Debt / Equity
1.72x
ROIC
15.0%
Interest Coverage
7.35x
Current Ratio
0.99x
Dividend Yield
2.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.5%
Rating Score
63/100
Business Overview
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is a large-cap company in the Rail Transportation industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $167.58B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $24.51B in revenue and $7.14B in net profit.
Our model rates UNP Favorable (63/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (7 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
39.3% average over the last 3 years
±1.4 pts around 40.0% across 7 years
grew in 4 of the last 6 year-over-year periods
positive in 7 of 7 years
15.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what UNP's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. UNP trades near $287.28, above its 50-day average ($267.05) and 200-day average ($244.41). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 64 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. UNP's is $6.33 (~2.2% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, UNP found buyers near $255.22 (support) and sellers near $282.80 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $210.84–$282.80. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
3.0%
Revenue moved from $21.71B in 2019 to $24.51B in 2025, a 2.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (1.9%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
79.4%
Operating Margin
40.2%
Net Margin
29.1%
ROE
40.4%
Union Pacific Corporation keeps about 29.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 79.4% gross margin and 40.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 40.4% and return on invested capital about 15.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$31.81B
Net Debt
$30.20B
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.07x
Debt / Equity
1.72x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.7x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.3x, with a current ratio of 1.0x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $31.81B of total debt against $1.61B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$9.29B
Free Cash Flow
$5.50B
FCF Margin
22.4%
In the latest year Union Pacific Corporation produced about $9.29B of operating cash flow and $5.50B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 5.3% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
2.1%
Per share (latest FY)
$5.44
Total paid (latest FY)
$3.24B
History on record
7 years
dividend uses 59% of free cash flow
45% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 6 years in a row
no cuts in the last 7 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
22.9x
P/S
6.28x
P/B
7.98x
EV / EBITDA
—
UNP trades at 22.9x trailing earnings (about 20.9x on estimated forward earnings), 6.3x sales, and 8.0x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$140.83
Current price
$287.28
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$5.50B
Growth, years 1–5
1.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where UNP sits versus the Industrials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How UNP stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 142 rated Industrials companies we cover, UNP ranks #22 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (22.9x P/E vs. 30.5x median) with a higher return on equity (40.4% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (1.9% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
22.9x
median 30.5x
ROE vs sector
40.4%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
1.9%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#22
of 142 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 142 rated companies among the 273 Industrials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$197.77 – $324.90
vs. $287.28 today · implied CAGR -7% – 2%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.25B | $26.00B | $26.78B | $27.59B | $28.41B |
| Net income | $7.32B | $7.54B | $7.77B | $8.00B | $8.24B |
| EPS | $12.55 | $12.93 | $13.32 | $13.71 | $14.13 |
| Share price (low) | $175.71 | $180.98 | $186.41 | $192.01 | $197.77 |
| Share price (high) | $288.67 | $297.33 | $306.25 | $315.44 | $324.90 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / 0% | -21% / 2% | -13% / 2% | -10% / 2% | -7% / 2% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for UNP:
- High net margins (29.2%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (40.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~5.3%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 2.1% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (63/100).
Bear Case
The case against UNP:
- Revenue growth is slow (1.9%), limiting the upside engine.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 1.7x) adds financial risk.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.7x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (1.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Union Pacific Corporation is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 22.9x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (63/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 31 Wall Street analysts covering UNP recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
UNP's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
UNP — frequently asked questions
Is UNP a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Union Pacific Corporation Favorable (63/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is UNP's rating on The Stocks School?
Union Pacific Corporation currently scores 63/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does UNP's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Union Pacific Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for UNP calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this UNP analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell UNP. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.