BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
$109.51
▼ 1.5%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
BABA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 51/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 10.3% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$230.36B
P/E
16.58x
Forward P/E (est.)
20.17x
ROE
10.2%
Revenue Growth
2.7%
EPS Growth
-17.8%
Profit Margin
10.3%
FCF Yield
9.4%
Debt / Equity
0.25x
ROIC
4.0%
Interest Coverage
5.12x
Current Ratio
1.28x
Dividend Yield
1.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
51/100
Business Overview
Alibaba remains China's commerce backbone with a top-two domestic cloud business and an AI-model effort (Qwen) taken seriously globally — yet it trades near 1.5x sales and ~15x earnings with roughly a quarter of its market cap in cash. Growth is slow (~3%) as PDD and Douyin compete hard and Chinese consumption stays soft; the investment case is valuation and buybacks, not momentum.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
10.4% average over the last 3 years
±7.6 pts around 15.4% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
4.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Downtrend — price ($109.51) is below the 50-day ($122.13) and 200-day ($146.76) averages.
Setup type
Downtrend — avoid or fade rallies
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 0.5
Trade levels
Entry zone
$109.51 – $113.25
Stop loss
$126.79
Target 1
$103.27
Target 2
$91.99
Target 3
$90.79
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is oversold (19); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Downtrend — price ($109.51) is below the 50-day ($122.13) and 200-day ($146.76) averages. ATR(14) is $3.12 (~2.8% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $91.99 and resistance near $125.23; the 52-week range is $91.99–$192.67.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 2.7%, net margin near 10.3%, ROE roughly 10.2%; shares trade at 17x earnings. Quality score: 51/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $3.12 (~2.8%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average volume — below average, so conviction is light.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a reclaim of $125.23 or a loss of $91.99.
Bullish scenario
A fortress balance sheet (cash ≈ 25% of market cap) funds large buybacks at depressed prices — free-cash-flow yield near 9%.
Bearish scenario
Core commerce is losing share to PDD and Douyin, and EPS fell 18% — cheap can get cheaper without growth.
Invalidation
A daily close above $126.79 invalidates this bearish read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what BABA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. BABA trades near $109.51, below its 50-day average ($122.13) and 200-day average ($146.76). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 19 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. BABA's is $3.12 (~2.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, BABA found buyers near $91.99 (support) and sellers near $125.23 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $91.99–$192.67. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
2.5%
Revenue grew from $22.99B in 2017 to $148.40B in 2026, a 23.0% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 2.7% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
4.9%
Net Margin
10.1%
ROE
10.2%
Gross margin runs near 39.8% with operating margin around 4.9% and net margin near 10.3%. Return on equity of roughly 10.2% indicates moderate capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.25x
Interest-bearing debt is about 9.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.25x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$10.67B
Free Cash Flow
$10.67B
FCF Margin
7.2%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 9.4%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
1.1%
Total paid (latest FY)
$4.72B
History on record
3 years
dividend uses 44% of free cash flow
31% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
no cuts in the last 3 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
16.58x
P/S
1.53x
P/B
2.16x
EV / EBITDA
17.37x
Shares trade at roughly 17x trailing earnings (12x forward), 1.5x sales, and 17x EV/EBITDA. That is a reasonable-to-cheap multiple relative to the broader market. Our internal rating is Neutral.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where BABA sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How BABA stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, BABA ranks #41 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (16.6x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a lower return on equity (10.2% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (2.7% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
16.6x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
10.2%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
2.7%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#41
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$81.78 – $139.03
vs. $109.51 today · implied CAGR -6% – 5%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $152.85B | $157.44B | $162.16B | $167.03B | $172.04B |
| Net income | $15.29B | $15.74B | $16.22B | $16.70B | $17.20B |
| EPS | $7.27 | $7.48 | $7.71 | $7.94 | $8.18 |
| Share price (low) | $72.66 | $74.84 | $77.09 | $79.40 | $81.78 |
| Share price (high) | $123.53 | $127.23 | $131.05 | $134.98 | $139.03 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -34% / 13% | -17% / 8% | -11% / 6% | -8% / 5% | -6% / 5% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- A fortress balance sheet (cash ≈ 25% of market cap) funds large buybacks at depressed prices — free-cash-flow yield near 9%.
- AliCloud plus Qwen give real optionality on Chinese AI adoption.
- Any durable Chinese consumption recovery flows straight through a business priced for none.
Bear Case
- Core commerce is losing share to PDD and Douyin, and EPS fell 18% — cheap can get cheaper without growth.
- Regulatory and delisting risk never fully leaves the China-ADR structure (a VIE, not direct share ownership).
- Slow growth and thin operating margins (4.9%) limit the compounding while you wait.
Key Risks
- Chinese macro weakness and consumption softness.
- US–China tensions affecting ADRs.
- Sustained share loss in domestic e-commerce.
Final Investment Thesis
Alibaba is a deep-value, high-uncertainty position: the price already assumes stagnation, and buybacks pay you to wait — but the VIE structure and share-loss trend are real. The monitorables are commerce GMV share and buyback pace. Size it as a value bet within a diversified portfolio, not a core holding.
Analyst Ratings
What 47 Wall Street analysts covering BABA recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
BABA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
BABA — frequently asked questions
Is BABA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Neutral (51/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is BABA's rating on The Stocks School?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. currently scores 51/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does BABA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for BABA calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this BABA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell BABA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.