MCD McDonald's
$243.11
▲ 0.3%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
MCD at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 64/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 3.8% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$199.39B
P/E
19.92x
Forward P/E (est.)
18.62x
ROE
95.1%
Revenue Growth
6.8%
EPS Growth
7.0%
Profit Margin
31.6%
FCF Yield
4.9%
Debt / Equity
3.4x
ROIC
25.0%
Interest Coverage
7.83x
Current Ratio
1.08x
Dividend Yield
2.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.2%
Rating Score
64/100
Business Overview
McDonald's (MCD) is a large-cap company in the Restaurants industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $199.39B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $26.89B in revenue and $8.56B in net profit.
Our model rates MCD Favorable (64/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
45.7% average over the last 3 years
±4.2 pts around 41.7% across 10 years
grew in 5 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
25.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MCD's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MCD trades near $243.11, below its 50-day average ($280.72) and 200-day average ($303.50). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 46 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MCD's is $5.93 (~2.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, MCD found buyers near $264.53 (support) and sellers near $289.29 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $264.53–$341.75. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.4× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
3.7%
Revenue moved from $24.62B in 2016 to $26.89B in 2025, a 1.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 6.8% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
57.4%
Operating Margin
46.1%
Net Margin
31.9%
ROE
95.1%
McDonald's keeps about 31.6% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 57.4% gross margin and 46.1% operating margin. Return on equity is 95.1% and return on invested capital about 25.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$39.97B
Net Debt
$39.15B
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.16x
Debt / Equity
3.4x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 3.4x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.8x, with a current ratio of 1.1x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $39.97B of total debt against $822.00M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$10.55B
Free Cash Flow
$7.19B
FCF Margin
26.7%
In the latest year McDonald's produced about $10.55B of operating cash flow and $7.19B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 4.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
2.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$7.17
Total paid (latest FY)
$5.12B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 71% of free cash flow
60% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
19.92x
P/S
7.61x
P/B
12.92x
EV / EBITDA
—
MCD trades at 19.9x trailing earnings (about 18.6x on estimated forward earnings), 7.6x sales, and 12.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.2% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$203.80
Current price
$243.11
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$7.19B
Growth, years 1–5
6.8%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where MCD sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How MCD stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, MCD ranks #14 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (19.9x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a higher return on equity (95.1% vs. 26.2%) and similar revenue growth (6.8% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
19.9x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
95.1%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
6.8%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#14
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$176.55 – $294.25
vs. $243.11 today · implied CAGR -6% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.77B | $30.78B | $32.94B | $35.24B | $37.71B |
| Net income | $9.21B | $9.85B | $10.54B | $11.28B | $12.07B |
| EPS | $11.22 | $12.01 | $12.85 | $13.75 | $14.71 |
| Share price (low) | $134.69 | $144.12 | $154.20 | $165.00 | $176.55 |
| Share price (high) | $224.48 | $240.19 | $257.01 | $275.00 | $294.25 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -45% / -8% | -23% / -1% | -14% / 2% | -9% / 3% | -6% / 4% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for MCD:
- High net margins (31.6%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (95.1%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~4.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 2.6% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (64/100).
Bear Case
The case against MCD:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 3.4x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 3.4x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: McDonald's is a large-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 19.9x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (64/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 41 Wall Street analysts covering MCD recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
MCD's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
MCD — frequently asked questions
Is MCD a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates McDonald's Favorable (64/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is MCD's rating on The Stocks School?
McDonald's currently scores 64/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does MCD's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from McDonald's's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for MCD calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this MCD analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MCD. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.