ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
$1,802.82
▲ 3.7%Updated Today 3:42 PM ET
ASML at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 70/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 132.7% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$674.26B
P/E
57.2x
Forward P/E (est.)
46.2x
ROE
44.7%
Revenue Growth
15.6%
EPS Growth
23.8%
Profit Margin
31.3%
FCF Yield
1.2%
Debt / Equity
0.19x
ROIC
39.0%
Interest Coverage
74.01x
Current Ratio
1.26x
Dividend Yield
0.5%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.1%
Rating Score
70/100
ASML is the only company on Earth that can build extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — €200M+ instruments without which TSMC, Samsung, and Intel cannot manufacture advanced chips. That 100% share of the industry's most critical tool has driven revenue from ~$20B to ~$35B in five years, with a growing high-margin service business attached to every installed machine.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
The filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
51.8% average over the last 3 years
±3.1 pts around 48.8% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
39.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Uptrend — price ($1,802.82) is above the 50-day ($1,655.25) and 200-day ($1,319.67) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
High
Risk / reward
1 : 2.0
Trade levels
Entry zone
$1,651.89 – $1,802.82
Stop loss
$1,588.07
Target 1
$1,999.96
Target 2
$2,154.99
Target 3
$2,305.92
Position sizing: Starter position only; risk ≤ 0.5% of capital and respect the wider stop.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is neutral (49); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Uptrend — price ($1,802.82) is above the 50-day ($1,655.25) and 200-day ($1,319.67) averages. ATR(14) is $100.62 (~5.6% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $1,638.38 and resistance near $1,999.96; the 52-week range is $683.48–$1,999.96.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 15.6%, net margin near 31.3%, ROE roughly 44.7%; shares trade at 57x earnings. Quality score: 70/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $100.62 (~5.6%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.5× the 20-day average volume — below average, so conviction is light.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $1,999.96 or a loss of $1,638.38.
Bullish scenario
A true monopoly: decades of accumulated optics and engineering make EUV practically impossible to replicate.
Bearish scenario
At ~61x trailing earnings, years of flawless growth are already priced in.
Invalidation
A daily close below $1,588.07 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ASML's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ASML trades near $1,802.82, above its 50-day average ($1,655.25) and 200-day average ($1,319.67). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 49 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ASML's is $100.62 (~5.6% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month ASML found buyers near $1,638.38 (support) and sellers near $1,999.96 (resistance); its 52-week range is $683.48–$1,999.96. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.5× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
15.1%
Revenue grew from $7.43B in 2016 to $35.28B in 2025, a 18.9% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 15.6% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Gross Margin
52.8%
Operating Margin
34.6%
Net Margin
29.4%
ROE
44.7%
Gross margin runs near 51.8% with operating margin around 36.9% and net margin near 31.3%. Return on equity of roughly 44.7% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Total Debt
$3.25B
Net Debt
-$10.70B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.88x
Debt / Equity
0.19x
Interest-bearing debt is about 1.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.19x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$13.67B
Free Cash Flow
$11.97B
FCF Margin
33.9%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 1.2%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
0.5%
Per share (latest FY)
$6.91
Total paid (latest FY)
$2.75B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 23% of free cash flow
27% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
57.2x
P/S
19.11x
P/B
13.57x
EV / EBITDA
49.84x
Shares trade at roughly 57x trailing earnings (49x forward), 19.1x sales, and 50x EV/EBITDA. That is a premium multiple that prices in continued high growth — execution risk is elevated. Our internal rating is Favorable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$1,014.10
Current price
$1,802.82
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$11.97B
Growth, years 1–5
15.6%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where ASML sits versus its Information Technology sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How ASML stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Information Technology sector (230 S&P 500 companies), ASML ranks #23 of 230 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (57.2x P/E vs. 38.3x median) with a higher return on equity (44.7% vs. 17.5%) and slower revenue growth (15.6% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
57.2x
median 38.3x
ROE vs sector
44.7%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
15.6%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#23
of 230 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 230 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $1,802.82 today · expected CAGR 2% – 13%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $40.93B | $47.47B | $55.07B | $63.88B | $74.10B |
| Net income | $11.87B | $13.77B | $15.97B | $18.53B | $21.49B |
| EPS | $31.73 | $36.81 | $42.70 | $49.53 | $57.46 |
| Share price (low) | $1,078.94 | $1,251.57 | $1,451.82 | $1,684.11 | $1,953.57 |
| Share price (high) | $1,808.81 | $2,098.22 | $2,433.93 | $2,823.36 | $3,275.10 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -40% / 0% | -17% / 8% | -7% / 11% | -2% / 12% | 2% / 13% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- A true monopoly: decades of accumulated optics and engineering make EUV practically impossible to replicate.
- Every AI-driven fab expansion anywhere in the world requires its machines.
- The installed base generates recurring, high-margin service and upgrade revenue for decades per machine.
- At ~61x trailing earnings, years of flawless growth are already priced in.
- Order timing is lumpy — a single pushed-out quarter regularly knocks double digits off the stock.
- Export restrictions cut it off from a meaningful share of the China market.
- Export-control tightening on China sales.
- Semiconductor capex cycles delaying orders.
- Customer concentration among a handful of foundries.
ASML is arguably the widest-moat industrial business in the world, but the valuation demands patience: the multiple leaves no cushion for order delays. The monitorables are bookings and China exposure. Suited to investors who want monopoly economics and will tolerate cycle-driven drawdowns rather than trade around them.
Analyst Ratings
What 42 Wall Street analysts covering ASML recommend (July 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ASML's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
ASML — frequently asked questions
Is ASML a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates ASML Holding N.V. Favorable (70/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ASML's rating on The Stocks School?
ASML Holding N.V. currently scores 70/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ASML's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from ASML Holding N.V.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ASML calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ASML analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ASML. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.