ORCL Oracle Corporation
$128.64
▼ 4.3%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
ORCL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Strong · 72/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 12.6% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$404.04B
P/E
21.8x
Forward P/E (est.)
16.15x
ROE
50.4%
Revenue Growth
17.4%
EPS Growth
35.0%
Profit Margin
25.4%
FCF Yield
3.0%
Debt / Equity
3.01x
ROIC
38.0%
Interest Coverage
4.48x
Current Ratio
1.12x
Dividend Yield
1.0%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
72/100
Business Overview
Oracle's second act is real: decades of sticky database and ERP relationships now funnel customers into Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and enormous AI-training contracts have pushed revenue growth to 17% — territory Oracle hadn't seen in a decade. The catch is on the balance sheet: debt-to-equity of ~3.0 funds the datacenter buildout, so the AI bet has to keep paying.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
30.1% average over the last 3 years
±3.8 pts around 31.8% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 8 of 10 years
38.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Downtrend — price ($128.64) is below the 50-day ($186.37) and 200-day ($199.88) averages.
Setup type
Downtrend — avoid or fade rallies
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
High
Risk / reward
1 : 0.2
Trade levels
Entry zone
$128.64 – $138.52
Stop loss
$243.07
Target 1
$112.18
Target 2
$95.72
Target 3
$79.26
Position sizing: Starter position only; risk ≤ 0.5% of capital and respect the wider stop.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is oversold (15); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Downtrend — price ($128.64) is below the 50-day ($186.37) and 200-day ($199.88) averages. ATR(14) is $8.23 (~6.4% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $138.83 and resistance near $238.95; the 52-week range is $134.57–$345.72.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 17.4%, net margin near 25.4%, ROE roughly 50.4%; shares trade at 22x earnings. Quality score: 72/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $8.23 (~6.4%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 1.4× the 20-day average volume — above average, confirming participation.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a reclaim of $238.95 or a loss of $138.83.
Bullish scenario
A massive contracted backlog of AI and cloud commitments gives unusual revenue visibility.
Bearish scenario
The AI buildout is debt-financed; a pause in AI capex would leave expensive datacenters underutilized.
Invalidation
A daily close above $243.07 invalidates this bearish read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ORCL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ORCL trades near $128.64, below its 50-day average ($186.37) and 200-day average ($199.88). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 15 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ORCL's is $8.23 (~6.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, ORCL found buyers near $138.83 (support) and sellers near $238.95 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $134.57–$345.72. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.4× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
12.2%
Revenue grew from $37.79B in 2017 to $67.36B in 2026, a 6.6% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 17.4% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
30.6%
Net Margin
25.4%
ROE
50.4%
Gross margin runs near 65.8% with operating margin around 30.6% and net margin near 25.4%. Return on equity of roughly 50.4% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$0.00
Net Debt
-$31.29B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-1.52x
Debt / Equity
3.01x
Interest-bearing debt is about 22.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 3.01x. Leverage is moderate and manageable relative to cash flow.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$31.98B
Free Cash Flow
-$23.69B
FCF Margin
-35.2%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 3.0%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
1.0%
Per share (latest FY)
$2.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$5.79B
History on record
10 years
free cash flow was negative in the latest year — the dividend is being financed
34% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 5 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
21.8x
P/S
8.1x
P/B
11.32x
EV / EBITDA
17x
Shares trade at roughly 22x trailing earnings (18x forward), 8.1x sales, and 17x EV/EBITDA. That is a reasonable-to-cheap multiple relative to the broader market. Our internal rating is Strong.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where ORCL sits versus the Information Technology companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How ORCL stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 98 rated Information Technology companies we cover, ORCL ranks #22 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (21.8x P/E vs. 36.2x median) with a higher return on equity (50.4% vs. 17.5%) and slower revenue growth (17.4% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
21.8x
median 36.2x
ROE vs sector
50.4%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
17.4%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#22
of 98 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 98 rated companies among the 230 Information Technology stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$152.81 – $258.60
vs. $128.64 today · implied CAGR 4% – 15%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $78.81B | $92.20B | $107.88B | $126.22B | $147.68B |
| Net income | $19.70B | $23.05B | $26.97B | $31.55B | $36.92B |
| EPS | $6.27 | $7.34 | $8.59 | $10.05 | $11.75 |
| Share price (low) | $81.55 | $95.41 | $111.63 | $130.60 | $152.81 |
| Share price (high) | $138.00 | $161.46 | $188.91 | $221.02 | $258.60 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -37% / 7% | -14% / 12% | -5% / 14% | 0% / 14% | 4% / 15% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- A massive contracted backlog of AI and cloud commitments gives unusual revenue visibility.
- Mission-critical databases make customers among the stickiest in software (50% ROE).
- EPS growing twice as fast as revenue (+35%) as cloud scale improves margins.
Bear Case
- The AI buildout is debt-financed; a pause in AI capex would leave expensive datacenters underutilized.
- OCI still trails AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud in breadth — some AI hosting wins are price-driven.
- Free-cash-flow yield (~3%) is thin while capex runs hot.
Key Risks
- AI-demand normalization stranding capacity.
- Balance-sheet leverage in a higher-rate world.
- Hyperscaler price competition.
Final Investment Thesis
Oracle is the leveraged way to own enterprise AI infrastructure: high visibility if the contracts hold, real balance-sheet consequences if demand pauses. The monitorables are backlog conversion and capex-to-FCF progression. Suited to investors who want AI exposure through a cash-generative incumbent and accept the leverage.
Analyst Ratings
What 49 Wall Street analysts covering ORCL recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ORCL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
ORCL — frequently asked questions
Is ORCL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Oracle Corporation Strong (72/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ORCL's rating on The Stocks School?
Oracle Corporation currently scores 72/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ORCL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Oracle Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ORCL calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ORCL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ORCL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.