TOST Toast Inc
$31.42
▼ 2.5%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
TOST at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 59/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 31.9% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$16.72B
P/E
42.95x
Forward P/E (est.)
30.68x
ROE
20.7%
Revenue Growth
23.4%
EPS Growth
163.7%
Profit Margin
6.4%
FCF Yield
-1.8%
Debt / Equity
0x
ROIC
11.0%
Interest Coverage
24.33x
Current Ratio
2.4x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.2%
Rating Score
59/100
Business Overview
Toast Inc (TOST) is a large-cap NYSE-listed company in the Financial Services industry, within the Financials sector, with a market value around $16.72B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $6.15B in revenue and $342.00M in net profit.
Our model rates TOST Favorable (59/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (7 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
23.8% average over the last 3 years
±5.0 pts around 19.3% across 7 years
grew in 6 of the last 6 year-over-year periods
positive in 3 of 7 years
11.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TOST's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TOST trades near $31.42, above its 50-day average ($25.87) and 200-day average ($31.08). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 80 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TOST's is $1.20 (~3.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, TOST found buyers near $23.79 (support) and sellers near $29.77 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $22.26–$49.66. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.3× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
37.8%
Revenue moved from $665.00M in 2019 to $6.15B in 2025, a 44.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 23.4% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
25.9%
Operating Margin
4.7%
Net Margin
5.6%
ROE
20.7%
Toast Inc keeps about 6.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 25.9% gross margin and 4.7% operating margin. Return on equity is 20.7% and return on invested capital about 11.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, and operating profit covers interest about 24.3x, with a current ratio of 2.4x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$661.00M
Free Cash Flow
$608.00M
FCF Margin
9.9%
In the latest year Toast Inc produced about $661.00M of operating cash flow and $608.00M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about -1.8% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
42.95x
P/S
2.72x
P/B
14.19x
EV / EBITDA
44.1x
TOST trades at 43.0x trailing earnings (about 30.7x on estimated forward earnings), 2.7x sales, and 14.2x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.2% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$31.42
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$608.00M
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where TOST sits versus the Financials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 141 Financials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How TOST stacks up against its Financials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 141 rated Financials companies we cover, TOST ranks #92 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (43x P/E vs. 14.9x median) with a higher return on equity (20.7% vs. 13.6%) and faster revenue growth (23.4% vs. 15.9%).
P/E vs sector
43x
median 14.9x
ROE vs sector
20.7%
median 13.6%
Growth vs sector
23.4%
median 15.9%
Sector rank
#92
of 141 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Financials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 141 rated companies among the 289 Financials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$50.80 – $84.01
vs. $31.42 today · implied CAGR 10% – 22%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.57B | $9.31B | $11.45B | $14.08B | $17.32B |
| Net income | $454.09M | $558.53M | $686.99M | $845.00M | $1.04B |
| EPS | $0.85 | $1.05 | $1.29 | $1.59 | $1.95 |
| Share price (low) | $22.19 | $27.30 | $33.57 | $41.30 | $50.80 |
| Share price (high) | $36.70 | $45.14 | $55.53 | $68.30 | $84.01 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -29% / 17% | -7% / 20% | 2% / 21% | 7% / 21% | 10% / 22% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for TOST:
- Revenue is growing 23.4% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (20.7%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (59/100).
Bear Case
The case against TOST:
- A rich 43.0x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 43.0x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Toast Inc is a large-cap financials business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 43.0x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (59/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
TOST's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
TOST — frequently asked questions
Is TOST a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Toast Inc Favorable (59/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is TOST's rating on The Stocks School?
Toast Inc currently scores 59/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does TOST's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Toast Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for TOST calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this TOST analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell TOST. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.