TCOM Trip.com Group Ltd
$39.98
▲ 0.1%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
TCOM at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Strong · 85/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 30.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$27.36B
P/E
5.74x
Forward P/E (est.)
4.1x
ROE
19.3%
Revenue Growth
17.3%
EPS Growth
84.1%
Profit Margin
48.6%
FCF Yield
33.6%
Debt / Equity
0.18x
ROIC
7.0%
Interest Coverage
18.65x
Current Ratio
1.55x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
1.8%
Rating Score
85/100
Business Overview
Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) is a large-cap NASDAQ-listed company in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry, within the Consumer Discretionary sector, with a market value around $27.36B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $8.74B in revenue and $4.76B in net profit.
Our model rates TCOM Strong (85/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
81.4% average over the last 3 years
±3.3 pts around 83.4% across 9 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 10 years
7.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TCOM's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TCOM trades near $39.98, below its 50-day average ($48.21) and 200-day average ($60.48). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 33 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TCOM's is $1.91 (~4.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, TCOM found buyers near $38.04 (support) and sellers near $48.83 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $38.04–$78.99. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.3× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
32.9%
Revenue moved from $429.34M in 2010 to $8.74B in 2025, a 39.8% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 17.3% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
82.3%
Operating Margin
25.8%
Net Margin
54.5%
ROE
19.3%
Trip.com Group Ltd keeps about 48.6% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 82.3% gross margin and 25.8% operating margin. Return on equity is 19.3% and return on invested capital about 7.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$1.22B
Net Debt
-$4.48B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-1.98x
Debt / Equity
0.18x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.2x, and operating profit covers interest about 18.6x, with a current ratio of 1.6x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $1.22B of total debt against $5.70B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$2.06B
Free Cash Flow
$1.95B
FCF Margin
22.3%
In the latest year Trip.com Group Ltd produced about $2.06B of operating cash flow and $1.95B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 33.6% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
5.74x
P/S
2.97x
P/B
1.86x
EV / EBITDA
—
TCOM trades at 5.7x trailing earnings (about 4.1x on estimated forward earnings), 3.0x sales, and 1.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 1.8% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$107.46
Current price
$39.98
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.95B
Growth, years 1–5
17.3%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where TCOM sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How TCOM stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, TCOM ranks #1 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (5.7x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a lower return on equity (19.3% vs. 26.2%) and faster revenue growth (17.3% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
5.7x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
19.3%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
17.3%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#1
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$69.99 – $111.98
vs. $39.98 today · implied CAGR 12% – 23%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.22B | $11.96B | $13.99B | $16.37B | $19.16B |
| Net income | $5.11B | $5.98B | $7.00B | $8.19B | $9.58B |
| EPS | $7.47 | $8.74 | $10.23 | $11.96 | $14.00 |
| Share price (low) | $37.35 | $43.70 | $51.13 | $59.82 | $69.99 |
| Share price (high) | $59.76 | $69.92 | $81.80 | $95.71 | $111.98 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -7% / 49% | 5% / 32% | 9% / 27% | 11% / 24% | 12% / 23% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for TCOM:
- Revenue is growing 17.3% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (48.6%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (19.3%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~33.6%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.2x) lowers risk.
- Our model's overall read is Strong (85/100).
Bear Case
The case against TCOM:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Trip.com Group Ltd is a large-cap consumer discretionary business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 5.7x earnings, which our model scores Strong (85/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering TCOM recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
TCOM's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
TCOM — frequently asked questions
Is TCOM a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Trip.com Group Ltd Strong (85/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is TCOM's rating on The Stocks School?
Trip.com Group Ltd currently scores 85/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does TCOM's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Trip.com Group Ltd's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for TCOM calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this TCOM analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell TCOM. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.