SW Smurfit Westrock
$41.54
▲ 0.7%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
SW at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 16/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 4.3% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$24.01B
P/E
57.75x
Forward P/E (est.)
82.5x
ROE
2.1%
Revenue Growth
-20.7%
EPS Growth
-52.2%
Profit Margin
1.2%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
0.75x
ROIC
4.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.45x
Dividend Yield
4.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.8%
Rating Score
16/100
Business Overview
Smurfit Westrock (SW) is a large-cap company in the Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $24.01B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $31.18B in revenue and $699.00M in net profit.
Our model rates SW Weak (16/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what SW's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. SW trades near $41.54, above its 50-day average ($41.48) and 200-day average ($41.00). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 67 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. SW's is $1.79 (~4.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, SW found buyers near $38.16 (support) and sellers near $47.86 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $32.73–$52.65. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
3Y CAGR
32.2%
Revenue moved from $13.51B in 2022 to $31.18B in 2025, a 32.2% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 20.7% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
19.4%
Operating Margin
5.5%
Net Margin
2.2%
ROE
2.1%
Smurfit Westrock keeps about 1.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 19.4% gross margin and 5.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 2.1% and return on invested capital about 4.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$13.22B
Net Debt
$12.55B
Net Debt / EBITDA
7.3x
Debt / Equity
0.75x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.8x, with a current ratio of 1.4x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $13.22B of total debt against $677.00M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$3.39B
Free Cash Flow
$1.20B
FCF Margin
3.8%
In the latest year Smurfit Westrock produced about $3.39B of operating cash flow and $1.20B of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
4.1%
Per share (latest FY)
$1.72
Total paid (latest FY)
$900.00M
History on record
4 years
dividend uses 75% of free cash flow
129% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 3 years in a row
no cuts in the last 4 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
57.75x
P/S
0.75x
P/B
1.04x
EV / EBITDA
—
SW trades at 57.8x trailing earnings (about 82.5x on estimated forward earnings), 0.7x sales, and 1.0x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.8% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$23.48
Current price
$41.54
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.20B
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where SW sits versus the Materials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How SW stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 54 rated Materials companies we cover, SW ranks #54 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (57.8x P/E vs. 20.1x median) with a lower return on equity (2.1% vs. 16.1%) and slower revenue growth (-20.7% vs. 7.9%).
P/E vs sector
57.8x
median 20.1x
ROE vs sector
2.1%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
-20.7%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#54
of 54 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 54 rated companies among the 78 Materials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$65.65 – $108.79
vs. $41.54 today · implied CAGR 10% – 21%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.11B | $33.08B | $34.07B | $35.09B | $36.15B |
| Net income | $963.43M | $992.33M | $1.02B | $1.05B | $1.08B |
| EPS | $1.67 | $1.72 | $1.77 | $1.82 | $1.88 |
| Share price (low) | $58.33 | $60.08 | $61.88 | $63.74 | $65.65 |
| Share price (high) | $96.66 | $99.56 | $102.55 | $105.63 | $108.79 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 40% / 133% | 20% / 55% | 14% / 35% | 11% / 26% | 10% / 21% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for SW:
- Pays a 4.1% dividend on top of any price gains.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Materials, it brings scale and a long operating history.
Bear Case
The case against SW:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-20.7%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (1.2%) leave little room for error.
- A rich 57.8x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (16/100).
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 57.8x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-20.7%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (1.2%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Smurfit Westrock is a large-cap materials business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 57.8x earnings, which our model scores Weak (16/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 27 Wall Street analysts covering SW recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
SW's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
SW — frequently asked questions
Is SW a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Smurfit Westrock Weak (16/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is SW's rating on The Stocks School?
Smurfit Westrock currently scores 16/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does SW's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Smurfit Westrock's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for SW calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this SW analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell SW. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.