SPOT
Spotify Technology SA
$490.90
▼ 0.3%Updated Today 3:42 PM ET
SPOT at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 62/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 33.6% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$100.03B
P/E
32.3x
Forward P/E (est.)
23.07x
ROE
35.2%
Revenue Growth
8.0%
EPS Growth
129.1%
Profit Margin
15.4%
FCF Yield
-0.6%
Debt / Equity
0.23x
ROIC
21.0%
Interest Coverage
8.26x
Current Ratio
1.72x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.7%
Rating Score
62/100
Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) is a large-cap company in the Media industry, part of the Communication Services sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $100.03B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $18.56B in revenue and $2.39B in net profit.
Our model rates SPOT Favorable (62/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
29.3% average over the last 3 years
±4.8 pts around 25.1% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
21.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what SPOT's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. SPOT trades near $490.90, around its 50-day average ($468.53) and 200-day average ($544.08). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 50 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. SPOT's is $18.04 (~3.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month SPOT found buyers near $438.70 (support) and sellers near $515.20 (resistance); its 52-week range is $405.00–$748.30. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.3× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
15.5%
Revenue moved from $3.19B in 2016 to $18.56B in 2025, a 21.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 8.0% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
32.0%
Operating Margin
12.8%
Net Margin
12.9%
ROE
35.2%
Spotify Technology SA keeps about 15.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 32.0% gross margin and 12.8% operating margin. Return on equity is 35.2% and return on invested capital about 21.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
$0.00
Net Debt
-$5.68B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-2.39x
Debt / Equity
0.23x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.2x, and operating profit covers interest about 8.3x, with a current ratio of 1.7x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $0.00 of total debt against $5.68B of cash.
Operating CF
$3.17B
Free Cash Flow
$3.10B
FCF Margin
16.7%
In the latest year Spotify Technology SA produced about $3.17B of operating cash flow and $3.10B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about -0.6% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
P/E
32.3x
P/S
5.09x
P/B
12.55x
EV / EBITDA
—
SPOT trades at 32.3x trailing earnings (about 23.1x on estimated forward earnings), 5.1x sales, and 12.6x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 5.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$324.36
Current price
$490.90
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$3.10B
Growth, years 1–5
8.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where SPOT sits versus its Communication Services sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 44 Communication Services companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How SPOT stacks up against its Communication Services peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Communication Services sector (95 S&P 500 companies), SPOT ranks #13 of 95 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (32.3x P/E vs. 18.1x median) with a higher return on equity (35.2% vs. 14.9%) and faster revenue growth (8.0% vs. 5.3%).
P/E vs sector
32.3x
median 18.1x
ROE vs sector
35.2%
median 14.9%
Growth vs sector
8.0%
median 5.3%
Sector rank
#13
of 95 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Communication Services companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 95 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $490.90 today · expected CAGR -8% – 3%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.05B | $21.65B | $23.38B | $25.25B | $27.27B |
| Net income | $2.61B | $2.81B | $3.04B | $3.28B | $3.55B |
| EPS | $12.79 | $13.81 | $14.92 | $16.11 | $17.40 |
| Share price (low) | $242.99 | $262.43 | $283.42 | $306.10 | $330.59 |
| Share price (high) | $409.25 | $441.99 | $477.35 | $515.53 | $556.78 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -51% / -17% | -27% / -5% | -17% / -1% | -11% / 1% | -8% / 3% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for SPOT:
- High net margins (15.4%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (35.2%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.2x) lowers risk.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (62/100).
The case against SPOT:
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Valuation risk — at 32.3x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Spotify Technology SA is a large-cap communication services business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 32.3x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (62/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 48 Wall Street analysts covering SPOT recommend (July 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
SPOT's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
SPOT — frequently asked questions
Is SPOT a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Spotify Technology SA Favorable (62/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is SPOT's rating on The Stocks School?
Spotify Technology SA currently scores 62/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does SPOT's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Spotify Technology SA's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for SPOT calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this SPOT analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell SPOT. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.