SPG Simon Property Group
$204.54
▲ 0.6%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
SPG at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Strong · 73/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 34.5% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$73.31B
P/E
14.13x
Forward P/E (est.)
10.09x
ROE
126.3%
Revenue Growth
10.9%
EPS Growth
85.1%
Profit Margin
70.6%
FCF Yield
5.3%
Debt / Equity
5.46x
ROIC
8.0%
Interest Coverage
3.26x
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
4.2%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.4%
Rating Score
73/100
Business Overview
Simon Property Group (SPG) is a large-cap company in the Retail REITs industry, part of the Real Estate sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $73.31B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $6.36B in revenue.
Our model rates SPG Strong (73/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
50.5% average over the last 3 years
±2.5 pts around 49.3% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
8.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what SPG's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. SPG trades near $204.54, around its 50-day average ($208.60) and 200-day average ($192.40). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 64 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. SPG's is $4.39 (~2.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, SPG found buyers near $204.50 (support) and sellers near $228.58 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $159.33–$228.58. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.6× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
5.6%
Revenue moved from $5.44B in 2016 to $6.36B in 2025, a 1.8% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 10.9% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
81.6%
Operating Margin
49.9%
Net Margin
70.6%
ROE
126.3%
Simon Property Group keeps about 70.6% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 81.6% gross margin and 49.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 126.3% and return on invested capital about 8.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$28.70B
Net Debt
$27.68B
Net Debt / EBITDA
8.72x
Debt / Equity
5.46x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 5.5x, and operating profit covers interest about 3.3x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $28.70B of total debt against $1.02B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$4.14B
Free Cash Flow
$3.20B
FCF Margin
50.3%
In the latest year Simon Property Group produced about $4.14B of operating cash flow and $3.20B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 5.3% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
14.13x
P/S
10.97x
P/B
11.13x
EV / EBITDA
—
SPG trades at 14.1x trailing earnings (about 10.1x on estimated forward earnings), 11.0x sales, and 11.1x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.4% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$204.54
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$3.20B
Growth, years 1–5
10.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where SPG sits versus the Real Estate companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 33 Real Estate companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How SPG stacks up against its Real Estate peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 33 rated Real Estate companies we cover, SPG ranks #1 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (14.1x P/E vs. 29.9x median) with a higher return on equity (126.3% vs. 8.0%) and faster revenue growth (10.9% vs. 5.3%).
P/E vs sector
14.1x
median 29.9x
ROE vs sector
126.3%
median 8.0%
Growth vs sector
10.9%
median 5.3%
Sector rank
#1
of 33 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Real Estate companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 33 rated companies among the 41 Real Estate stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$119.69 – $209.46
vs. $204.54 today · implied CAGR -10% – 0%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.06B | $7.84B | $8.70B | $9.66B | $10.72B |
| Net income | $3.53B | $3.92B | $4.35B | $4.83B | $5.36B |
| EPS | $9.86 | $10.94 | $12.14 | $13.48 | $14.96 |
| Share price (low) | $78.85 | $87.52 | $97.15 | $107.83 | $119.69 |
| Share price (high) | $137.98 | $153.16 | $170.01 | $188.71 | $209.46 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -61% / -33% | -35% / -13% | -22% / -6% | -15% / -2% | -10% / 0% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for SPG:
- Revenue is growing 10.9% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (70.6%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (126.3%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~5.3%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 4.2% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Strong (73/100).
Bear Case
The case against SPG:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 5.5x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 5.5x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Simon Property Group is a large-cap real estate business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 14.1x earnings, which our model scores Strong (73/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
SPG's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
SPG — frequently asked questions
Is SPG a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Simon Property Group Strong (73/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is SPG's rating on The Stocks School?
Simon Property Group currently scores 73/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does SPG's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Simon Property Group's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for SPG calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this SPG analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell SPG. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.