SHOP Shopify Inc
$169.36
▼ 4.9%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
SHOP at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 43/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$155.02B
P/E
164.99x
Forward P/E (est.)
199.73x
ROE
10.5%
Revenue Growth
31.9%
EPS Growth
-17.4%
Profit Margin
10.8%
FCF Yield
-0.7%
Debt / Equity
0x
ROIC
9.0%
Interest Coverage
419.55x
Current Ratio
5.35x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.6%
Rating Score
43/100
Business Overview
Shopify Inc (SHOP) is a large-cap NASDAQ-listed company in the Technology industry, within the Information Technology sector, with a market value around $155.02B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $11.56B in revenue and $1.23B in net profit.
Our model rates SHOP Neutral (43/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Revenue Growth
3Y CAGR
27.3%
Revenue moved from $5.60B in 2022 to $11.56B in 2025, a 27.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 31.9% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
48.1%
Operating Margin
12.7%
Net Margin
10.7%
ROE
10.5%
Shopify Inc keeps about 10.8% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 48.1% gross margin and 12.7% operating margin. Return on equity is 10.5% and return on invested capital about 9.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, and operating profit covers interest about 419.6x, with a current ratio of 5.3x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$2.03B
Free Cash Flow
$2.01B
FCF Margin
17.4%
In the latest year Shopify Inc produced about $2.03B of operating cash flow and $2.01B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about -0.7% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
164.99x
P/S
13.41x
P/B
22.05x
EV / EBITDA
—
SHOP trades at 165.0x trailing earnings (about 199.7x on estimated forward earnings), 13.4x sales, and 22.1x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 7.6% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$169.36
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$2.01B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where SHOP sits versus the Information Technology companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How SHOP stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 98 rated Information Technology companies we cover, SHOP ranks #81 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (165x P/E vs. 36.2x median) with a lower return on equity (10.5% vs. 17.5%) and faster revenue growth (31.9% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
165x
median 36.2x
ROE vs sector
10.5%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
31.9%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#81
of 98 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 98 rated companies among the 230 Information Technology stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$550.98 – $918.30
vs. $169.36 today · implied CAGR 27% – 40%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.25B | $20.14B | $26.58B | $35.08B | $46.31B |
| Net income | $1.68B | $2.21B | $2.92B | $3.86B | $5.09B |
| EPS | $1.83 | $2.42 | $3.19 | $4.22 | $5.57 |
| Share price (low) | $181.48 | $239.56 | $316.22 | $417.41 | $550.98 |
| Share price (high) | $302.47 | $399.27 | $527.03 | $695.68 | $918.30 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 7% / 79% | 19% / 54% | 23% / 46% | 25% / 42% | 27% / 40% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for SHOP:
- Revenue is growing 31.9% a year, a sign of real demand.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
Bear Case
The case against SHOP:
- A rich 165.0x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 165.0x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Shopify Inc is a large-cap information technology business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 165.0x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (43/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 56 Wall Street analysts covering SHOP recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
SHOP's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
SHOP — frequently asked questions
Is SHOP a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Shopify Inc Neutral (43/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is SHOP's rating on The Stocks School?
Shopify Inc currently scores 43/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does SHOP's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Shopify Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for SHOP calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this SHOP analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell SHOP. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.