PAG
Penske Automotive Group Inc
$194.87
▼ 0.3%Updated Today 3:42 PM ET
PAG at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 45/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▼ Down 1.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$11.80B
P/E
12.75x
Forward P/E (est.)
12.89x
ROE
16.4%
Revenue Growth
1.2%
EPS Growth
-1.1%
Profit Margin
3.0%
FCF Yield
10.5%
Debt / Equity
1.13x
ROIC
12.0%
Interest Coverage
28.45x
Current Ratio
0.96x
Dividend Yield
3.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.3%
Rating Score
45/100
Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) is a large-cap company in the Retail industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $11.80B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $31.81B in revenue and $935.40M in net profit.
Our model rates PAG Neutral (45/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
16.5% average over the last 3 years
±1.0 pts around 15.9% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
12.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what PAG's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. PAG trades near $194.87, above its 50-day average ($171.43) and 200-day average ($164.15). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 49 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. PAG's is $4.81 (~2.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month PAG found buyers near $169.33 (support) and sellers near $186.62 (resistance); its 52-week range is $140.12–$189.51. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.2× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
5.6%
Revenue moved from $20.12B in 2016 to $31.81B in 2025, a 5.2% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (1.2%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
16.4%
Operating Margin
4.0%
Net Margin
2.9%
ROE
16.4%
Penske Automotive Group Inc keeps about 3.0% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 16.4% gross margin and 4.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 16.4% and return on invested capital about 12.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$2.64B
Net Debt
$2.55B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.99x
Debt / Equity
1.13x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.1x, and operating profit covers interest about 28.4x, with a current ratio of 1.0x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $2.64B of total debt against $83.70M of cash.
Operating CF
$975.10M
Free Cash Flow
$650.50M
FCF Margin
2.0%
In the latest year Penske Automotive Group Inc produced about $975.10M of operating cash flow and $650.50M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 10.5% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
3.1%
Per share (latest FY)
$5.18
Total paid (latest FY)
$343.80M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 53% of free cash flow
37% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 5 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
12.75x
P/S
0.37x
P/B
1.87x
EV / EBITDA
—
PAG trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (about 12.9x on estimated forward earnings), 0.4x sales, and 1.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$145.22
Current price
$194.87
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$650.50M
Growth, years 1–5
1.2%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where PAG sits versus its Consumer Discretionary sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How PAG stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (158 S&P 500 companies), PAG ranks #55 of 158 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (12.7x P/E vs. 25.1x median) with a lower return on equity (16.4% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (1.2% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
12.7x
median 25.1x
ROE vs sector
16.4%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
1.2%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#55
of 158 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 158 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $194.87 today · expected CAGR -6% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.76B | $33.75B | $34.76B | $35.80B | $36.87B |
| Net income | $982.88M | $1.01B | $1.04B | $1.07B | $1.11B |
| EPS | $16.24 | $16.72 | $17.23 | $17.74 | $18.27 |
| Share price (low) | $129.89 | $133.79 | $137.80 | $141.93 | $146.19 |
| Share price (high) | $211.07 | $217.40 | $223.93 | $230.64 | $237.56 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -33% / 8% | -17% / 6% | -11% / 5% | -8% / 4% | -6% / 4% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for PAG:
- Strong return on equity (16.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~10.5%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 3.1% dividend on top of any price gains.
The case against PAG:
- Revenue growth is slow (1.2%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (3.0%) leave little room for error.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.1x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (1.2%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.0%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Penske Automotive Group Inc is a large-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 12.7x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (45/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 16 Wall Street analysts covering PAG recommend (July 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
PAG's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
PAG — frequently asked questions
Is PAG a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Penske Automotive Group Inc Neutral (45/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is PAG's rating on The Stocks School?
Penske Automotive Group Inc currently scores 45/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does PAG's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Penske Automotive Group Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for PAG calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this PAG analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell PAG. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.