PAG Penske Automotive Group Inc
$212.69
▲ 0.3%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
PAG at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 45/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 1.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$11.80B
P/E
12.75x
Forward P/E (est.)
12.89x
ROE
16.4%
Revenue Growth
1.2%
EPS Growth
-1.1%
Profit Margin
3.0%
FCF Yield
10.5%
Debt / Equity
1.13x
ROIC
12.0%
Interest Coverage
28.45x
Current Ratio
0.98x
Dividend Yield
3.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.3%
Rating Score
45/100
Business Overview
Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) is a large-cap NYSE-listed company in the Retail industry, within the Consumer Discretionary sector, with a market value around $11.80B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $31.81B in revenue and $935.40M in net profit.
Our model rates PAG Neutral (45/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
16.5% average over the last 3 years
±1.0 pts around 15.9% across 10 years
grew in 7 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
12.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what PAG's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. PAG trades near $212.69, above its 50-day average ($171.43) and 200-day average ($164.15). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 49 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. PAG's is $4.81 (~2.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, PAG found buyers near $169.33 (support) and sellers near $186.62 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $140.12–$189.51. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.2× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
5.6%
Revenue moved from $20.12B in 2016 to $31.81B in 2025, a 5.2% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (1.2%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
16.4%
Operating Margin
4.0%
Net Margin
2.9%
ROE
16.4%
Penske Automotive Group Inc keeps about 3.0% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 16.4% gross margin and 4.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 16.4% and return on invested capital about 12.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$2.50B
Net Debt
$2.43B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.89x
Debt / Equity
1.13x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.1x, and operating profit covers interest about 28.4x, with a current ratio of 1.0x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $2.50B of total debt against $69.50M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$975.10M
Free Cash Flow
$650.50M
FCF Margin
2.0%
In the latest year Penske Automotive Group Inc produced about $975.10M of operating cash flow and $650.50M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 10.5% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
3.1%
Per share (latest FY)
$5.18
Total paid (latest FY)
$343.80M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 53% of free cash flow
37% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 5 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
12.75x
P/S
0.37x
P/B
1.87x
EV / EBITDA
—
PAG trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (about 12.9x on estimated forward earnings), 0.4x sales, and 1.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$145.41
Current price
$212.69
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$650.50M
Growth, years 1–5
1.2%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where PAG sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How PAG stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, PAG ranks #56 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (12.7x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a lower return on equity (16.4% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (1.2% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
12.7x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
16.4%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
1.2%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#56
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$159.56 – $259.29
vs. $212.69 today · implied CAGR -6% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.76B | $33.75B | $34.76B | $35.80B | $36.87B |
| Net income | $982.88M | $1.01B | $1.04B | $1.07B | $1.11B |
| EPS | $17.72 | $18.25 | $18.80 | $19.36 | $19.95 |
| Share price (low) | $141.77 | $146.02 | $150.40 | $154.91 | $159.56 |
| Share price (high) | $230.37 | $237.28 | $244.40 | $251.73 | $259.29 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -33% / 8% | -17% / 6% | -11% / 5% | -8% / 4% | -6% / 4% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for PAG:
- Strong return on equity (16.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~10.5%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 3.1% dividend on top of any price gains.
Bear Case
The case against PAG:
- Revenue growth is slow (1.2%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (3.0%) leave little room for error.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.1x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (1.2%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.0%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Penske Automotive Group Inc is a large-cap consumer discretionary business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 12.7x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (45/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 15 Wall Street analysts covering PAG recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-29 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
PAG's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
PAG — frequently asked questions
Is PAG a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Penske Automotive Group Inc Neutral (45/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is PAG's rating on The Stocks School?
Penske Automotive Group Inc currently scores 45/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does PAG's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Penske Automotive Group Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for PAG calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this PAG analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell PAG. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.