NTRS Northern Trust
$165.54
▲ 0.1%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
NTRS at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 42/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 55.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$32.66B
P/E
16.38x
Forward P/E (est.)
18.29x
ROE
14.4%
Revenue Growth
-2.7%
EPS Growth
-10.4%
Profit Margin
22.4%
FCF Yield
4.7%
Debt / Equity
12.29x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
1.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-6.6%
Rating Score
42/100
Business Overview
Northern Trust (NTRS) is a large-cap company in the Asset Management & Custody Banks industry, part of the Financials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $32.66B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $8.09B in revenue and $1.74B in net profit.
Our model rates NTRS Neutral (42/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NTRS's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NTRS trades near $165.54, around its 50-day average ($168.47) and 200-day average ($145.96). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 61 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NTRS's is $3.79 (~2.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, NTRS found buyers near $165.90 (support) and sellers near $178.70 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $118.99–$178.70. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.6× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
5.8%
Revenue moved from $4.96B in 2016 to $8.09B in 2025, a 5.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 2.7% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
100.0%
Operating Margin
30.2%
Net Margin
21.5%
ROE
14.4%
Northern Trust keeps about 22.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 100.0% gross margin and 30.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 14.4%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$1.42B
Net Debt
$1.42B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
12.29x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 12.3x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$5.53B
Free Cash Flow
$5.46B
FCF Margin
67.5%
In the latest year Northern Trust produced about $5.53B of operating cash flow and $5.46B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 4.7% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
1.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$3.10
Total paid (latest FY)
$591.60M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 11% of free cash flow
34% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
16.38x
P/S
4x
P/B
1.89x
EV / EBITDA
—
NTRS trades at 16.4x trailing earnings (about 18.3x on estimated forward earnings), 4.0x sales, and 1.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -6.6% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$349.57
Current price
$165.54
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$5.46B
Growth, years 1–5
-2.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where NTRS sits versus the Financials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 141 Financials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How NTRS stacks up against its Financials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 141 rated Financials companies we cover, NTRS ranks #128 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (16.4x P/E vs. 14.9x median) with a higher return on equity (14.4% vs. 13.6%) and slower revenue growth (-2.7% vs. 15.9%).
P/E vs sector
16.4x
median 14.9x
ROE vs sector
14.4%
median 13.6%
Growth vs sector
-2.7%
median 15.9%
Sector rank
#128
of 141 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Financials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 141 rated companies among the 289 Financials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$99.78 – $159.65
vs. $165.54 today · implied CAGR -10% – -1%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.33B | $8.58B | $8.84B | $9.10B | $9.37B |
| Net income | $1.75B | $1.80B | $1.86B | $1.91B | $1.97B |
| EPS | $8.87 | $9.13 | $9.41 | $9.69 | $9.98 |
| Share price (low) | $88.65 | $91.31 | $94.05 | $96.87 | $99.78 |
| Share price (high) | $141.84 | $146.10 | $150.48 | $155.00 | $159.65 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -46% / -14% | -26% / -6% | -17% / -3% | -13% / -2% | -10% / -1% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for NTRS:
- High net margins (22.4%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~4.7%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
The case against NTRS:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-2.7%), limiting the upside engine.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 12.3x) adds financial risk.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 12.3x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-2.7%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Northern Trust is a large-cap financials business with shrinking revenue, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 16.4x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (42/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 21 Wall Street analysts covering NTRS recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-27 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
NTRS's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
NTRS — frequently asked questions
Is NTRS a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Northern Trust Neutral (42/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NTRS's rating on The Stocks School?
Northern Trust currently scores 42/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NTRS's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Northern Trust's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NTRS calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NTRS analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NTRS. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.