NFLX Netflix, Inc.
$70.54
▼ 2.9%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
NFLX at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Strong · 81/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 36.7% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$326.97B
P/E
21.99x
Forward P/E (est.)
15.71x
ROE
49.2%
Revenue Growth
16.7%
EPS Growth
46.2%
Profit Margin
28.5%
FCF Yield
2.5%
Debt / Equity
0.54x
ROIC
21.0%
Interest Coverage
19.04x
Current Ratio
1.14x
Dividend Yield
0.0%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.9%
Rating Score
81/100
Business Overview
Netflix has shifted from growth-at-all-costs to profitable scale, with margins and free cash flow rising sharply as the password-sharing crackdown and ad tier add members and revenue. It is the clear leader in global streaming, with a deep content library and pricing power.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
25.6% average over the last 3 years
±7.8 pts around 16.8% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 10 years
21.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Downtrend — price ($70.54) is below the 50-day ($84.12) and 200-day ($96.10) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
High
Risk / reward
1 : 4.4
Trade levels
Entry zone
$70.86 – $70.54
Stop loss
$69.44
Target 1
$76.22
Target 2
$80.48
Target 3
$84.74
Position sizing: Starter position only; risk ≤ 0.5% of capital and respect the wider stop.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is soft (43); the MACD histogram is positive (upward momentum). Downtrend — price ($70.54) is below the 50-day ($84.12) and 200-day ($96.10) averages. ATR(14) is $2.84 (~4.0% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $70.86 and resistance near $83.70; the 52-week range is $70.86–$130.23.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 16.7%, net margin near 28.5%, ROE roughly 49.2%; shares trade at 22x earnings. Quality score: 81/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $2.84 (~4.0%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $83.70 or a loss of $70.86.
Bullish scenario
Expanding operating margins and growing free cash flow.
Bearish scenario
Content spending is large and competition is intense.
Invalidation
A daily close below $69.44 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NFLX's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NFLX trades near $70.54, below its 50-day average ($84.12) and 200-day average ($96.10). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 43 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NFLX's is $2.84 (~4.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, NFLX found buyers near $70.86 (support) and sellers near $83.70 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $70.86–$130.23. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
11.1%
Revenue grew from $8.83B in 2016 to $45.18B in 2025, a 19.9% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 16.7% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
29.5%
Net Margin
24.3%
ROE
49.2%
Gross margin runs near 49.0% with operating margin around 23.8% and net margin near 28.5%. Return on equity of roughly 49.2% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$20.54B
Net Debt
$11.44B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.86x
Debt / Equity
0.54x
Interest-bearing debt is about 4.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.54x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$10.15B
Free Cash Flow
$9.46B
FCF Margin
20.9%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 2.5%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
21.99x
P/S
7.26x
P/B
14.42x
EV / EBITDA
30x
Shares trade at roughly 22x trailing earnings (35x forward), 7.3x sales, and 30x EV/EBITDA. That is a reasonable-to-cheap multiple relative to the broader market. Our internal rating is Strong.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$78.91
Current price
$70.54
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$9.46B
Growth, years 1–5
16.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where NFLX sits versus the Communication Services companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 44 Communication Services companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How NFLX stacks up against its Communication Services peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 44 rated Communication Services companies we cover, NFLX ranks #2 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (22x P/E vs. 17.4x median) with a higher return on equity (49.2% vs. 14.9%) and faster revenue growth (16.7% vs. 5.3%).
P/E vs sector
22x
median 17.4x
ROE vs sector
49.2%
median 14.9%
Growth vs sector
16.7%
median 5.3%
Sector rank
#2
of 44 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Communication Services companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 44 rated companies among the 95 Communication Services stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$66.68 – $112.84
vs. $70.54 today · implied CAGR -1% – 10%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $52.86B | $61.85B | $72.37B | $84.67B | $99.06B |
| Net income | $12.69B | $14.84B | $17.37B | $20.32B | $23.77B |
| EPS | $2.74 | $3.20 | $3.75 | $4.38 | $5.13 |
| Share price (low) | $35.58 | $41.63 | $48.71 | $56.99 | $66.68 |
| Share price (high) | $60.22 | $70.45 | $82.43 | $96.45 | $112.84 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -50% / -15% | -23% / -0% | -12% / 5% | -5% / 8% | -1% / 10% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- Expanding operating margins and growing free cash flow.
- Ad-supported tier opens a large new revenue stream.
- Global scale and content advantage over streaming rivals.
Bear Case
- Content spending is large and competition is intense.
- Subscriber growth will mature in developed markets.
- Ad-tier economics are promising but still unproven at scale.
Key Risks
- Streaming competition and content costs.
- Subscriber saturation.
- FX and pricing elasticity.
Final Investment Thesis
Netflix is a profitable streaming leader with margin momentum from the ad tier and password-sharing monetization; suited to growth investors comfortable with content-cost intensity.
Analyst Ratings
What 58 Wall Street analysts covering NFLX recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
NFLX's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
NFLX — frequently asked questions
Is NFLX a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Netflix, Inc. Strong (81/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NFLX's rating on The Stocks School?
Netflix, Inc. currently scores 81/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NFLX's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Netflix, Inc.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NFLX calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NFLX analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NFLX. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.