MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
$367.34
▼ 3.2%Updated Today 6:01 PM ET
▼ Down 21.0% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$2.82T
P/E
22.47x
Forward P/E (est.)
17.32x
ROE
33.1%
Revenue Growth
17.9%
EPS Growth
29.8%
Profit Margin
39.3%
FCF Yield
3.1%
Debt / Equity
0.26x
ROIC
22.0%
Interest Coverage
43.79x
Current Ratio
1.28x
Dividend Yield
0.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.3%
Rating Score
85/100
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Downtrend — price ($367.34) is below the 50-day ($412.98) and 200-day ($451.35) averages.
Setup type
Downtrend — avoid or fade rallies
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 0.3
Trade levels
Entry zone
$367.34 – $382.39
Stop loss
$472.59
Target 1
$342.26
Target 2
$317.18
Target 3
$292.10
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is oversold (19); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Downtrend — price ($367.34) is below the 50-day ($412.98) and 200-day ($451.35) averages. ATR(14) is $12.54 (~3.4% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $373.28 and resistance near $466.32; the 52-week range is $356.28–$555.45.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 17.9%, net margin near 39.3%, ROE roughly 33.1%; shares trade at 22x earnings. Quality score: 85/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $12.54 (~3.4%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 1.5× the 20-day average volume — above average, confirming participation.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a reclaim of $466.32 or a loss of $373.28.
Bullish scenario
Azure is compounding at a mid-to-high 20% rate with AI workloads as a fresh growth vector.
Bearish scenario
Heavy AI capital expenditure pressures free cash flow and returns if demand disappoints.
Invalidation
A daily close above $472.59 invalidates this bearish read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MSFT's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MSFT trades near $367.34, below its 50-day average ($412.98) and 200-day average ($451.35). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 19 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MSFT's is $12.54 (~3.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month MSFT found buyers near $373.28 (support) and sellers near $466.32 (resistance); its 52-week range is $356.28–$555.45. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.5× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
Microsoft pairs a fortress balance sheet with three durable franchises — Azure, Microsoft 365, and Windows — and is monetizing AI faster than any large-cap peer via Copilot and Azure OpenAI. Recurring, enterprise-grade revenue and ~45% operating margins make it one of the highest-quality businesses in the market.
4Y CAGR
13.8%
Revenue grew from $168.09B in 2021 to $281.72B in 2025, a 13.8% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 17.9% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Gross Margin
68.8%
Operating Margin
45.6%
Net Margin
36.1%
ROE
33.1%
Gross margin runs near 68.3% with operating margin around 46.8% and net margin near 39.3%. Return on equity of roughly 33.1% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Total Debt
$40.26B
Net Debt
$8.16B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.06x
Debt / Equity
0.26x
Interest-bearing debt is about 1.5% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.26x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$136.16B
Free Cash Flow
$71.61B
FCF Margin
25.4%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 3.1%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
P/E
22.47x
P/S
10.37x
P/B
10.37x
EV / EBITDA
24x
Shares trade at roughly 22x trailing earnings (31x forward), 10.4x sales, and 24x EV/EBITDA. That is a reasonable-to-cheap multiple relative to the broader market. Our internal rating is Strong.
Where this stock sits versus what most companies trade at.
Typical ranges are general references (e.g., many stocks trade at ~18–26x earnings), not hard rules. Context only — not investment advice.
How MSFT stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Information Technology sector (72 S&P 500 companies), MSFT ranks #4 of 72 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (22.5x P/E vs. 35.6x median) with a higher return on equity (33.1% vs. 25.6%) and faster revenue growth (17.9% vs. 17.4%).
P/E vs sector
22.5x
median 35.6x
ROE vs sector
33.1%
median 25.6%
Growth vs sector
17.9%
median 17.4%
Sector rank
#4
of 72 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 72 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$406.05 – $687.17
vs. $367.34 today · expected CAGR 2% – 13%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $332.43B | $392.27B | $462.88B | $546.20B | $644.52B |
| Net income | $119.68B | $141.22B | $166.64B | $196.63B | $232.03B |
| EPS | $16.11 | $19.01 | $22.43 | $26.47 | $31.23 |
| Share price (low) | $209.44 | $247.14 | $291.62 | $344.11 | $406.05 |
| Share price (high) | $354.43 | $418.23 | $493.51 | $582.34 | $687.17 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -43% / -4% | -18% / 7% | -7% / 10% | -2% / 12% | 2% / 13% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- Azure is compounding at a mid-to-high 20% rate with AI workloads as a fresh growth vector.
- Copilot attaches AI monetization across a billion-plus Office users.
- Enterprise switching costs and operating leverage drive consistent margin expansion.
- Heavy AI capital expenditure pressures free cash flow and returns if demand disappoints.
- Cloud growth will eventually decelerate off a very large base.
- A 35x multiple already embeds successful AI monetization.
- AI capex cycle outrunning near-term revenue.
- Cloud competition from AWS and Google.
- Regulatory scrutiny of the OpenAI relationship and bundling practices.
Microsoft is a core long-term holding: a wide-moat compounder with multiple growth engines and the cleanest AI monetization path among mega-caps. The metric to watch is Azure growth versus capex intensity.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.