MOS Mosaic Company (The)
$18.78
▼ 0.9%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
MOS at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 32/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 37.2% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$6.72B
P/E
136.65x
Forward P/E (est.)
195.22x
ROE
0.4%
Revenue Growth
12.3%
EPS Growth
-88.9%
Profit Margin
0.4%
FCF Yield
29.9%
Debt / Equity
0.42x
ROIC
4.0%
Interest Coverage
3.4x
Current Ratio
1.34x
Dividend Yield
3.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
32/100
Business Overview
Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) is a mid-cap company in the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $6.72B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.05B in revenue and $540.70M in net profit.
Our model rates MOS Weak (32/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (8 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
15.2% average over the last 3 years
±6.5 pts around 17.4% across 8 years
grew in 3 of the last 7 year-over-year periods
positive in 6 of 8 years
4.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MOS's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MOS trades near $18.78, below its 50-day average ($22.47) and 200-day average ($26.26). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 50 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MOS's is $1.07 (~5.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, MOS found buyers near $19.80 (support) and sellers near $24.29 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $19.80–$38.23. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
-0.6%
Revenue moved from $9.59B in 2018 to $12.05B in 2025, a 3.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 12.3% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
15.8%
Operating Margin
6.8%
Net Margin
4.5%
ROE
0.4%
Mosaic Company (The) keeps about 0.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 15.8% gross margin and 6.8% operating margin. Return on equity is 0.4% and return on invested capital about 4.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$3.83B
Net Debt
$3.54B
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.31x
Debt / Equity
0.42x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.4x, and operating profit covers interest about 3.4x, with a current ratio of 1.3x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $3.83B of total debt against $294.00M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$824.80M
Free Cash Flow
-$534.60M
FCF Margin
-4.4%
In the latest year Mosaic Company (The) produced about $824.80M of operating cash flow but negative free cash flow as it invested heavily. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 29.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
3.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.88
Total paid (latest FY)
$280.40M
History on record
8 years
free cash flow was negative in the latest year — the dividend is being financed
52% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 1 year in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 8 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
136.65x
P/S
0.59x
P/B
0.55x
EV / EBITDA
—
MOS trades at 136.7x trailing earnings (about 195.2x on estimated forward earnings), 0.6x sales, and 0.5x book value. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where MOS sits versus the Materials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How MOS stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 54 rated Materials companies we cover, MOS ranks #46 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (136.7x P/E vs. 20.1x median) with a lower return on equity (0.4% vs. 16.1%) and faster revenue growth (12.3% vs. 7.9%).
P/E vs sector
136.7x
median 20.1x
ROE vs sector
0.4%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
12.3%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#46
of 54 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 54 rated companies among the 78 Materials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$194.81 – $325.48
vs. $18.78 today · implied CAGR 60% – 77%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.50B | $15.12B | $16.93B | $18.96B | $21.24B |
| Net income | $539.95M | $604.74M | $677.31M | $758.59M | $849.62M |
| EPS | $1.51 | $1.69 | $1.89 | $2.12 | $2.38 |
| Share price (low) | $123.81 | $138.66 | $155.30 | $173.94 | $194.81 |
| Share price (high) | $206.85 | $231.67 | $259.47 | $290.61 | $325.48 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 559% / 1001% | 172% / 251% | 102% / 140% | 74% / 98% | 60% / 77% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for MOS:
- Revenue is growing 12.3% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~29.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.4x) lowers risk.
- Pays a 3.9% dividend on top of any price gains.
Bear Case
The case against MOS:
- Thin net margins (0.4%) leave little room for error.
- A rich 136.7x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (32/100).
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 136.7x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Margin risk — thin profitability (0.4%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Mosaic Company (The) is a mid-cap materials business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 136.7x earnings, which our model scores Weak (32/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 25 Wall Street analysts covering MOS recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+4 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
MOS's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
MOS — frequently asked questions
Is MOS a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Mosaic Company (The) Weak (32/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is MOS's rating on The Stocks School?
Mosaic Company (The) currently scores 32/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does MOS's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Mosaic Company (The)'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for MOS calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this MOS analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MOS. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.