CF CF Industries
$120.73
▲ 0.8%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
CF at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Strong · 87/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 2.6% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$16.98B
P/E
10.62x
Forward P/E (est.)
7.58x
ROE
35.2%
Revenue Growth
20.9%
EPS Growth
46.8%
Profit Margin
23.7%
FCF Yield
16.1%
Debt / Equity
0.66x
ROIC
20.0%
Interest Coverage
14.84x
Current Ratio
4.86x
Dividend Yield
1.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-1.5%
Rating Score
87/100
Business Overview
CF Industries (CF) is a large-cap company in the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $16.98B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $7.08B in revenue.
Our model rates CF Strong (87/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
37.2% average over the last 3 years
±12.0 pts around 30.7% across 9 years
grew in 5 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
20.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what CF's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. CF trades near $120.73, above its 50-day average ($116.00) and 200-day average ($99.85). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 59 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. CF's is $3.60 (~3.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, CF found buyers near $100.70 (support) and sellers near $118.60 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $75.42–$141.96. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
2.0%
Revenue moved from $4.13B in 2017 to $7.08B in 2025, a 7.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 20.9% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
38.5%
Operating Margin
32.5%
Net Margin
23.7%
ROE
35.2%
CF Industries keeps about 23.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 38.5% gross margin and 32.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 35.2% and return on invested capital about 20.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$3.22B
Net Debt
$2.93B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.27x
Debt / Equity
0.66x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.7x, and operating profit covers interest about 14.8x, with a current ratio of 4.9x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $3.22B of total debt against $287.00M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$2.75B
Free Cash Flow
$1.80B
FCF Margin
25.4%
In the latest year CF Industries produced about $2.75B of operating cash flow and $1.80B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 16.1% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
1.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$2.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$326.00M
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 18% of free cash flow
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 9 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
10.62x
P/S
2.3x
P/B
2.85x
EV / EBITDA
—
CF trades at 10.6x trailing earnings (about 7.6x on estimated forward earnings), 2.3x sales, and 2.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -1.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$493.08
Current price
$120.73
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.80B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where CF sits versus the Materials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How CF stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 54 rated Materials companies we cover, CF ranks #6 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (10.6x P/E vs. 20.1x median) with a higher return on equity (35.2% vs. 16.1%) and faster revenue growth (20.9% vs. 7.9%).
P/E vs sector
10.6x
median 20.1x
ROE vs sector
35.2%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
20.9%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#6
of 54 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 54 rated companies among the 78 Materials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$219.45 – $344.85
vs. $120.73 today · implied CAGR 13% – 23%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.57B | $10.37B | $12.55B | $15.19B | $18.37B |
| Net income | $2.06B | $2.49B | $3.01B | $3.64B | $4.41B |
| EPS | $14.63 | $17.70 | $21.41 | $25.91 | $31.35 |
| Share price (low) | $102.38 | $123.87 | $149.89 | $181.36 | $219.45 |
| Share price (high) | $160.88 | $194.66 | $235.54 | $285.00 | $344.85 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -15% / 33% | 1% / 27% | 7% / 25% | 11% / 24% | 13% / 23% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for CF:
- Revenue is growing 20.9% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (23.7%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (35.2%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~16.1%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Our model's overall read is Strong (87/100).
Bear Case
The case against CF:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: CF Industries is a large-cap materials business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 10.6x earnings, which our model scores Strong (87/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering CF recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
CF's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
CF — frequently asked questions
Is CF a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates CF Industries Strong (87/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is CF's rating on The Stocks School?
CF Industries currently scores 87/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does CF's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from CF Industries's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for CF calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this CF analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell CF. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.