LYB LyondellBasell
$63.99
▲ 2.1%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
LYB at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 20/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 2.4% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$17.22B
P/E
—
Forward P/E (est.)
—
ROE
-7.4%
Revenue Growth
-22.0%
EPS Growth
—
Profit Margin
-2.7%
FCF Yield
18.8%
Debt / Equity
1.28x
ROIC
-2.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.64x
Dividend Yield
4.4%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.6%
Rating Score
20/100
Business Overview
LyondellBasell (LYB) is a large-cap company in the Specialty Chemicals industry, part of the Materials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $17.22B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $30.15B in revenue.
Our model rates LYB Weak (20/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
4.2% average over the last 3 years
±5.5 pts around 10.3% across 10 years
grew in 5 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
-2.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what LYB's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. LYB trades near $63.99, around its 50-day average ($66.92) and 200-day average ($57.31). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 14 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. LYB's is $2.16 (~3.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, LYB found buyers near $51.98 (support) and sellers near $67.91 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $41.58–$83.94. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
-10.1%
Revenue moved from $28.45B in 2016 to $30.15B in 2025, a 0.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 22.0% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
9.2%
Operating Margin
-1.4%
Net Margin
-2.7%
ROE
-7.4%
LyondellBasell keeps about -2.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 9.2% gross margin and -1.4% operating margin. Return on equity is -7.4% and return on invested capital about -2.0%. The company is currently unprofitable on a net basis.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$5.77B
Net Debt
$3.14B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
1.28x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.3x, with a current ratio of 1.6x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $5.77B of total debt against $2.63B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$2.26B
Free Cash Flow
$384.00M
FCF Margin
1.3%
In the latest year LyondellBasell produced about $2.26B of operating cash flow and $384.00M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 18.8% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
4.4%
Per share (latest FY)
$5.45
Total paid (latest FY)
$1.76B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 459% of free cash flow
total dividends increased 2 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
—
P/S
0.68x
P/B
1.41x
EV / EBITDA
—
LYB trades at n/a trailing earnings, 0.7x sales, and 1.4x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.6% long-term free-cash-flow growth. With no positive trailing earnings, value it on sales, cash flow, or growth rather than P/E.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$12.20
Current price
$63.99
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$384.00M
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where LYB sits versus the Materials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 54 Materials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How LYB stacks up against its Materials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 54 rated Materials companies we cover, LYB ranks #53 by our overall rating.
P/E vs sector
—
median 20.1x
ROE vs sector
-7.4%
median 16.1%
Growth vs sector
-22.0%
median 7.9%
Sector rank
#53
of 54 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Materials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 54 rated companies among the 78 Materials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$46.75 – $77.92
vs. $63.99 today · implied CAGR -6% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.06B | $31.99B | $32.95B | $33.94B | $34.96B |
| Net income | $931.73M | $959.68M | $988.47M | $1.02B | $1.05B |
| EPS | $3.46 | $3.57 | $3.67 | $3.78 | $3.90 |
| Share price (low) | $41.54 | $42.78 | $44.07 | $45.39 | $46.75 |
| Share price (high) | $69.23 | $71.31 | $73.45 | $75.65 | $77.92 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -35% / 8% | -18% / 6% | -12% / 5% | -8% / 4% | -6% / 4% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions. Growth, margin or P/E data is missing for this stock, so some starting values above are placeholders rather than measurements.
Bull Case
The case for LYB:
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~18.8%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 4.4% dividend on top of any price gains.
Bear Case
The case against LYB:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-22.0%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (-2.7%) leave little room for error.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (20/100).
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.3x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-22.0%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (-2.7%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: LyondellBasell is a large-cap materials business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at n/a earnings, which our model scores Weak (20/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 25 Wall Street analysts covering LYB recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+4 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
LYB's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
LYB — frequently asked questions
Is LYB a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates LyondellBasell Weak (20/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is LYB's rating on The Stocks School?
LyondellBasell currently scores 20/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does LYB's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from LyondellBasell's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for LYB calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this LYB analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell LYB. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.