EC Ecopetrol SA
$17.94
▲ 1.4%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
EC at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 32/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 59.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$26.21B
P/E
14.26x
Forward P/E (est.)
20.37x
ROE
11.2%
Revenue Growth
-10.2%
EPS Growth
-39.5%
Profit Margin
7.5%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
1.3x
ROIC
16.0%
Interest Coverage
3.73x
Current Ratio
1.53x
Dividend Yield
4.7%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
-18.6%
Rating Score
32/100
Business Overview
Ecopetrol SA (EC) is a large-cap NYSE-listed company in the Energy industry, within the Energy sector, with a market value around $26.21B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $33.33B in revenue and $3.46B in net profit.
Our model rates EC Weak (32/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
39.2% average over the last 3 years
±5.5 pts around 35.2% across 10 years
grew in 5 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
16.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what EC's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. EC trades near $17.94, above its 50-day average ($14.58) and 200-day average ($12.08). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 32 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. EC's is $0.78 (~4.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, EC found buyers near $14.05 (support) and sellers near $17.75 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $8.27–$17.75. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.3× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
27.6%
Revenue moved from $13.09B in 2015 to $33.33B in 2024, a 10.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 10.2% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
35.1%
Operating Margin
28.8%
Net Margin
10.4%
ROE
11.2%
Ecopetrol SA keeps about 7.5% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 35.1% gross margin and 28.8% operating margin. Return on equity is 11.2% and return on invested capital about 16.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$27.17B
Net Debt
$23.66B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.46x
Debt / Equity
1.3x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.3x, and operating profit covers interest about 3.7x, with a current ratio of 1.5x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $27.17B of total debt against $3.51B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$11.28B
Free Cash Flow
$8.90B
FCF Margin
26.7%
In the latest year Ecopetrol SA produced about $11.28B of operating cash flow and $8.90B of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
4.7%
Per share (latest FY)
$2312.81
Total paid (latest FY)
$3.89B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 44% of free cash flow
112% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 1 year in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
14.26x
P/S
0.88x
P/B
1.13x
EV / EBITDA
3.72x
EC trades at 14.3x trailing earnings (about 20.4x on estimated forward earnings), 0.9x sales, and 1.1x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly -18.6% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$2.22
Current price
$17.94
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$8.90B
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where EC sits versus the Energy companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 47 Energy companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How EC stacks up against its Energy peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 47 rated Energy companies we cover, EC ranks #45 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (14.3x P/E vs. 21.4x median) with a lower return on equity (11.2% vs. 13.3%) and slower revenue growth (-10.2% vs. 0.7%).
P/E vs sector
14.3x
median 21.4x
ROE vs sector
11.2%
median 13.3%
Growth vs sector
-10.2%
median 0.7%
Sector rank
#45
of 47 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Energy companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 47 rated companies among the 57 Energy stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$21.16 – $37.03
vs. $17.94 today · implied CAGR 3% – 16%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.33B | $35.36B | $36.42B | $37.52B | $38.64B |
| Net income | $3.43B | $3.54B | $3.64B | $3.75B | $3.86B |
| EPS | $2.35 | $2.42 | $2.49 | $2.57 | $2.64 |
| Share price (low) | $18.80 | $19.36 | $19.94 | $20.54 | $21.16 |
| Share price (high) | $32.90 | $33.88 | $34.90 | $35.95 | $37.03 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 5% / 83% | 4% / 37% | 4% / 25% | 3% / 19% | 3% / 16% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for EC:
- Pays a 4.7% dividend on top of any price gains.
Bear Case
The case against EC:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-10.2%), limiting the upside engine.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (32/100).
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.3x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-10.2%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Ecopetrol SA is a large-cap energy business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 14.3x earnings, which our model scores Weak (32/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 11 Wall Street analysts covering EC recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+9 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
EC's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
EC — frequently asked questions
Is EC a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Ecopetrol SA Weak (32/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is EC's rating on The Stocks School?
Ecopetrol SA currently scores 32/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does EC's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Ecopetrol SA's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for EC calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this EC analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell EC. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.