ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$24.01
▼ 0.6%Updated Today 3:42 PM ET
ZTO at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Favorable · 64/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 27.5% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$17.48B
P/E
13.35x
Forward P/E (est.)
13.18x
ROE
14.3%
Revenue Growth
13.9%
EPS Growth
1.3%
Profit Margin
17.9%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
0.17x
ROIC
12.0%
Interest Coverage
36.73x
Current Ratio
1.49x
Dividend Yield
3.0%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.5%
Rating Score
64/100
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) is a large-cap company in the Logistics & Transportation industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $17.48B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $6.87B in revenue and $1.30B in net profit.
Our model rates ZTO Favorable (64/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
28.8% average over the last 3 years
±4.1 pts around 29.8% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 8 of 10 years
12.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ZTO's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ZTO trades near $24.01, above its 50-day average ($23.40) and 200-day average ($22.16). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 53 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ZTO's is $0.48 (~2.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month ZTO found buyers near $21.47 (support) and sellers near $23.28 (resistance); its 52-week range is $17.39–$26.20. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.4× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
12.7%
Revenue moved from $1.37B in 2016 to $6.87B in 2025, a 19.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 13.9% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Gross Margin
25.5%
Operating Margin
21.8%
Net Margin
18.9%
ROE
14.3%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc keeps about 17.9% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 25.5% gross margin and 21.8% operating margin. Return on equity is 14.3% and return on invested capital about 12.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.17x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.2x, and operating profit covers interest about 36.7x, with a current ratio of 1.5x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns.
Operating CF
$1.68B
Free Cash Flow
$929.95M
FCF Margin
13.5%
In the latest year ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc produced about $1.68B of operating cash flow and $929.95M of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
3.0%
Total paid (latest FY)
$525.76M
History on record
3 years
dividend uses 57% of free cash flow
40% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 3 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
13.35x
P/S
2.39x
P/B
1.76x
EV / EBITDA
8.1x
ZTO trades at 13.4x trailing earnings (about 13.2x on estimated forward earnings), 2.4x sales, and 1.8x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$35.00
Current price
$24.01
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$929.95M
Growth, years 1–5
13.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where ZTO sits versus its Industrials sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How ZTO stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Industrials sector (273 S&P 500 companies), ZTO ranks #17 of 273 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (13.4x P/E vs. 30.7x median) with a lower return on equity (14.3% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (13.9% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
13.4x
median 30.7x
ROE vs sector
14.3%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
13.9%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#17
of 273 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 273 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $24.01 today · expected CAGR 3% – 13%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.84B | $8.93B | $10.18B | $11.61B | $13.23B |
| Net income | $1.49B | $1.70B | $1.93B | $2.21B | $2.51B |
| EPS | $2.05 | $2.33 | $2.66 | $3.03 | $3.45 |
| Share price (low) | $16.36 | $18.65 | $21.27 | $24.24 | $27.64 |
| Share price (high) | $26.59 | $30.31 | $34.56 | $39.40 | $44.91 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -32% / 11% | -12% / 12% | -4% / 13% | 0% / 13% | 3% / 13% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for ZTO:
- Revenue is growing 13.9% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (17.9%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.2x) lowers risk.
- Pays a 3.0% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (64/100).
The case against ZTO:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc is a large-cap industrials business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 13.4x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (64/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 20 Wall Street analysts covering ZTO recommend (July 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ZTO's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
ZTO — frequently asked questions
Is ZTO a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc Favorable (64/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ZTO's rating on The Stocks School?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc currently scores 64/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ZTO's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ZTO calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ZTO analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ZTO. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.