WMT Walmart Inc.
$118.74
▲ 0.7%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
WMT at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 52/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 23.2% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$963.17B
P/E
41.56x
Forward P/E (est.)
34.13x
ROE
23.9%
Revenue Growth
5.9%
EPS Growth
21.8%
Profit Margin
3.1%
FCF Yield
8.5%
Debt / Equity
0.52x
ROIC
18.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.77x
Dividend Yield
0.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.3%
Rating Score
52/100
Business Overview
Walmart turned the threat of Amazon into a playbook: $700B+ in revenue now feeds a flywheel of e-commerce, a third-party marketplace, and a high-margin advertising and membership business growing far faster than the stores. The core retail engine grows mid-single digits, but the profit mix is shifting toward those better businesses — which is why EPS (+22%) grows much faster than revenue.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
4.3% average over the last 3 years
±0.3 pts around 4.2% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
18.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Sideways — price ($118.74) sits between its 50-day ($123.01) and 200-day ($117.06) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 0.6
Trade levels
Entry zone
$114.41 – $118.74
Stop loss
$105.81
Target 1
$122.94
Target 2
$128.85
Target 3
$133.19
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is oversold (29); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Sideways — price ($118.74) sits between its 50-day ($123.01) and 200-day ($117.06) averages. ATR(14) is $2.89 (~2.4% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $107.25 and resistance near $122.94; the 52-week range is $94.23–$135.16.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 5.9%, net margin near 3.1%, ROE roughly 23.9%; shares trade at 42x earnings. Quality score: 52/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $2.89 (~2.4%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 1.2× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $122.94 or a loss of $107.25.
Bullish scenario
Advertising, marketplace, and membership income are transforming retail margins from famously thin to structurally rising.
Bearish scenario
At ~39x earnings, Walmart trades like a tech platform while 96%+ of revenue is still low-margin retail.
Invalidation
A daily close below $105.81 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what WMT's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. WMT trades near $118.74, around its 50-day average ($123.01) and 200-day average ($117.06). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 29 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. WMT's is $2.89 (~2.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, WMT found buyers near $107.25 (support) and sellers near $122.94 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $94.23–$135.16. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.2× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
5.6%
Revenue grew from $481.32B in 2017 to $706.41B in 2026, a 4.4% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 5.9% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
4.2%
Net Margin
3.1%
ROE
23.9%
Gross margin runs near 25.0% with operating margin around 4.2% and net margin near 3.1%. Return on equity of roughly 23.9% indicates moderate capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$38.17B
Net Debt
$27.44B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.92x
Debt / Equity
0.52x
Interest-bearing debt is about 5.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.52x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$41.56B
Free Cash Flow
$14.92B
FCF Margin
2.1%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 8.5%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.8%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.94
Total paid (latest FY)
$7.51B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 50% of free cash flow
34% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 3 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
41.56x
P/S
1.35x
P/B
9.74x
EV / EBITDA
24.5x
Shares trade at roughly 42x trailing earnings (32x forward), 1.4x sales, and 25x EV/EBITDA. That is a full but defensible multiple for a quality franchise. Our internal rating is Neutral.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$35.78
Current price
$118.74
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$14.92B
Growth, years 1–5
5.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where WMT sits versus the Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How WMT stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 48 rated Consumer Staples companies we cover, WMT ranks #20 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (41.6x P/E vs. 22x median) with a higher return on equity (23.9% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (5.9% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
41.6x
median 22x
ROE vs sector
23.9%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
5.9%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#20
of 48 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 48 rated companies among the 74 Consumer Staples stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$87.41 – $146.84
vs. $118.74 today · implied CAGR -6% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $748.80B | $793.73B | $841.35B | $891.83B | $945.34B |
| Net income | $22.46B | $23.81B | $25.24B | $26.75B | $28.36B |
| EPS | $2.77 | $2.94 | $3.11 | $3.30 | $3.50 |
| Share price (low) | $69.23 | $73.39 | $77.79 | $82.46 | $87.41 |
| Share price (high) | $116.31 | $123.29 | $130.69 | $138.53 | $146.84 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -42% / -2% | -21% / 2% | -13% / 3% | -9% / 4% | -6% / 4% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- Advertising, marketplace, and membership income are transforming retail margins from famously thin to structurally rising.
- Scale advantage in groceries — the most frequent purchase in retail — keeps traffic defensive in downturns.
- Consistent share gains among higher-income households broaden the customer base.
Bear Case
- At ~39x earnings, Walmart trades like a tech platform while 96%+ of revenue is still low-margin retail.
- A 3.1% net margin leaves little room for wage, tariff, or price-war shocks.
- E-commerce still competes with Amazon's logistics head start.
Key Risks
- Margin pressure from wages and tariffs.
- Price competition in grocery.
- Execution risk in scaling the ad/marketplace businesses.
Final Investment Thesis
Walmart is a defensive compounder re-rating as its profit mix improves; the debate is whether that deserves a near-40x multiple. The monitorables are ad/membership growth and grocery share. Suited to conservative investors who want staple-like stability with a genuine e-commerce growth story attached.
Analyst Ratings
What 48 Wall Street analysts covering WMT recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
WMT's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
WMT — frequently asked questions
Is WMT a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Walmart Inc. Neutral (52/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is WMT's rating on The Stocks School?
Walmart Inc. currently scores 52/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does WMT's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Walmart Inc.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for WMT calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this WMT analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell WMT. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.