COST Costco Wholesale Corporation
$990.40
▲ 1.3%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
COST at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 47/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 2.4% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$422.05B
P/E
49.98x
Forward P/E (est.)
44.31x
ROE
28.3%
Revenue Growth
9.2%
EPS Growth
12.8%
Profit Margin
3.0%
FCF Yield
1.9%
Debt / Equity
0.25x
ROIC
20.0%
Interest Coverage
67.42x
Current Ratio
1.07x
Dividend Yield
0.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.0%
Rating Score
47/100
Business Overview
Costco's membership model turns razor-thin retail margins into a remarkably durable franchise: members renew at ~90% and fees drop almost entirely to profit. Consistent traffic, pricing power with suppliers, and steady warehouse expansion make it a defensive compounder.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
3.6% average over the last 3 years
±0.2 pts around 3.3% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 8 of 8 years
20.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Sideways — price ($990.40) sits between its 50-day ($992.32) and 200-day ($957.22) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Low
Risk / reward
1 : 0.3
Trade levels
Entry zone
$961.48 – $990.40
Stop loss
$910.91
Target 1
$997.41
Target 2
$1,057.88
Target 3
$1,086.80
Position sizing: Standard size; risk ≤ 1.5% of capital.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is soft (42); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Sideways — price ($990.40) sits between its 50-day ($992.32) and 200-day ($957.22) averages. ATR(14) is $19.28 (~1.9% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $920.55 and resistance near $997.41; the 52-week range is $844.06–$1,096.50.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 9.2%, net margin near 3.0%, ROE roughly 28.3%; shares trade at 50x earnings. Quality score: 47/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $19.28 (~1.9%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $997.41 or a loss of $920.55.
Bullish scenario
~90% membership renewal creates a predictable, high-margin fee annuity.
Bearish scenario
The stock trades at a premium ~50x multiple for mid-single-digit growth.
Invalidation
A daily close below $910.91 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what COST's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. COST trades near $990.40, around its 50-day average ($992.32) and 200-day average ($957.22). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 42 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. COST's is $19.28 (~1.9% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, COST found buyers near $920.55 (support) and sellers near $997.41 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $844.06–$1,096.50. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
8.9%
Revenue grew from $118.72B in 2016 to $275.24B in 2025, a 9.8% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 9.2% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
3.8%
Net Margin
2.9%
ROE
28.3%
Gross margin runs near 12.9% with operating margin around 3.8% and net margin near 3.0%. Return on equity of roughly 28.3% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$6.62B
Net Debt
-$12.33B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-1.19x
Debt / Equity
0.25x
Interest-bearing debt is about 2.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.25x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$13.34B
Free Cash Flow
$7.84B
FCF Margin
2.8%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 1.9%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
0.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$4.92
Total paid (latest FY)
$2.18B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 28% of free cash flow
27% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
49.98x
P/S
1.6x
P/B
14.4x
EV / EBITDA
33x
Shares trade at roughly 50x trailing earnings (48x forward), 1.6x sales, and 33x EV/EBITDA. That is a premium multiple that prices in continued high growth — execution risk is elevated. Our internal rating is Neutral.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$406.92
Current price
$990.40
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$7.84B
Growth, years 1–5
9.2%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where COST sits versus the Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How COST stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 48 rated Consumer Staples companies we cover, COST ranks #25 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (50x P/E vs. 22x median) with a higher return on equity (28.3% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (9.2% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
50x
median 22x
ROE vs sector
28.3%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
9.2%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#25
of 48 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 48 rated companies among the 74 Consumer Staples stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$894.40 – $1,490.66
vs. $990.40 today · implied CAGR -2% – 9%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $300.01B | $327.01B | $356.44B | $388.52B | $423.48B |
| Net income | $9.00B | $9.81B | $10.69B | $11.66B | $12.70B |
| EPS | $21.12 | $23.02 | $25.09 | $27.35 | $29.81 |
| Share price (low) | $633.61 | $690.64 | $752.80 | $820.55 | $894.40 |
| Share price (high) | $1,056.02 | $1,151.06 | $1,254.66 | $1,367.58 | $1,490.66 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -36% / 7% | -16% / 8% | -9% / 8% | -5% / 8% | -2% / 9% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- ~90% membership renewal creates a predictable, high-margin fee annuity.
- Scale and treasure-hunt merchandising drive industry-leading loyalty.
- Long runway for international and warehouse expansion.
Bear Case
- The stock trades at a premium ~50x multiple for mid-single-digit growth.
- Retail margins are structurally thin and sensitive to mix.
- Membership-fee increases are infrequent and already anticipated.
Key Risks
- Premium valuation compression.
- Consumer-spending softness.
- Wage and freight cost inflation.
Final Investment Thesis
Costco is a defensive, high-quality compounder where membership economics matter more than retail margin. Suited to conservative long-term investors, though the entry valuation is demanding.
Analyst Ratings
What 46 Wall Street analysts covering COST recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
COST's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
COST — frequently asked questions
Is COST a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Costco Wholesale Corporation Neutral (47/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is COST's rating on The Stocks School?
Costco Wholesale Corporation currently scores 47/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does COST's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Costco Wholesale Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for COST calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this COST analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell COST. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.