ULTA Ulta Beauty
$591.98
▼ 2.8%Updated Today 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
ULTA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Strong · 75/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 3.7% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$19.83B
P/E
21.2x
Forward P/E (est.)
20.34x
ROE
44.8%
Revenue Growth
43.0%
EPS Growth
4.2%
Profit Margin
9.4%
FCF Yield
6.4%
Debt / Equity
0.02x
ROIC
36.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.31x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.4%
Rating Score
75/100
Business Overview
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is a large-cap company in the Other Specialty Retail industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $19.83B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.39B in revenue and $1.15B in net profit.
Our model rates ULTA Strong (75/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
39.0% average over the last 3 years
±2.4 pts around 37.1% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
36.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ULTA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ULTA trades near $591.98, above its 50-day average ($496.48) and 200-day average ($561.27). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 44 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ULTA's is $14.98 (~2.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, ULTA found buyers near $443.60 (support) and sellers near $493.98 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $443.60–$714.97. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
9.5%
Revenue moved from $4.85B in 2017 to $12.39B in 2026, a 11.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 43.0% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
39.1%
Operating Margin
12.4%
Net Margin
9.3%
ROE
44.8%
Ulta Beauty keeps about 9.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 39.1% gross margin and 12.4% operating margin. Return on equity is 44.8% and return on invested capital about 36.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$800.00M
Net Debt
$633.70M
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.41x
Debt / Equity
0.02x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.0x, with a current ratio of 1.3x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $800.00M of total debt against $166.30M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$1.50B
Free Cash Flow
$1.07B
FCF Margin
8.6%
In the latest year Ulta Beauty produced about $1.50B of operating cash flow and $1.07B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.4% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
21.2x
P/S
1.59x
P/B
13.45x
EV / EBITDA
—
ULTA trades at 21.2x trailing earnings (about 20.3x on estimated forward earnings), 1.6x sales, and 13.4x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.4% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$1,028.73
Current price
$591.98
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.07B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where ULTA sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How ULTA stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, ULTA ranks #3 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (21.2x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a higher return on equity (44.8% vs. 26.2%) and faster revenue growth (43.0% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
21.2x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
44.8%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
43.0%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#3
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$2,588.04 – $4,180.68
vs. $591.98 today · implied CAGR 34% – 48%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.72B | $25.34B | $36.24B | $51.82B | $74.11B |
| Net income | $1.59B | $2.28B | $3.26B | $4.66B | $6.67B |
| EPS | $47.61 | $68.08 | $97.35 | $139.22 | $199.08 |
| Share price (low) | $618.91 | $885.04 | $1,265.61 | $1,809.82 | $2,588.04 |
| Share price (high) | $999.78 | $1,429.68 | $2,044.44 | $2,923.55 | $4,180.68 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 5% / 69% | 22% / 55% | 29% / 51% | 32% / 49% | 34% / 48% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for ULTA:
- Revenue is growing 43.0% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (44.8%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.4%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.0x) lowers risk.
- Our model's overall read is Strong (75/100).
Bear Case
The case against ULTA:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Ulta Beauty is a large-cap consumer discretionary business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 21.2x earnings, which our model scores Strong (75/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 34 Wall Street analysts covering ULTA recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
ULTA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
ULTA — frequently asked questions
Is ULTA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Ulta Beauty Strong (75/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ULTA's rating on The Stocks School?
Ulta Beauty currently scores 75/100 (Strong) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ULTA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Ulta Beauty's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ULTA calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ULTA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ULTA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.