NVR NVR, Inc.
$5,919.09
▼ 0.4%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
NVR at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 55/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 7.0% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$18.22B
P/E
13x
Forward P/E (est.)
15.39x
ROE
32.7%
Revenue Growth
-7.7%
EPS Growth
-15.6%
Profit Margin
12.5%
FCF Yield
7.5%
Debt / Equity
0.25x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
2.8%
Rating Score
55/100
Business Overview
NVR, Inc. (NVR) is a large-cap company in the Homebuilding industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $18.22B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $10.32B in revenue and $1.34B in net profit.
Our model rates NVR Neutral (55/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what NVR's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. NVR trades near $5,919.09, below its 50-day average ($6,245.90) and 200-day average ($7,094.86). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 59 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. NVR's is $194.38 (~3.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, NVR found buyers near $6,110.00 (support) and sellers near $6,956.48 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $5,501.01–$8,618.28. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.6× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
3.6%
Revenue moved from $5.82B in 2016 to $10.32B in 2025, a 6.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 7.7% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
23.5%
Operating Margin
16.5%
Net Margin
13.0%
ROE
32.7%
NVR, Inc. keeps about 12.5% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 23.5% gross margin and 16.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 32.7%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$600.12M
Net Debt
-$2.21B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.25x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.2x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $600.12M of total debt against $2.81B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$1.12B
Free Cash Flow
$1.10B
FCF Margin
10.6%
In the latest year NVR, Inc. produced about $1.12B of operating cash flow and $1.10B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 7.5% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
13x
P/S
1.68x
P/B
4.93x
EV / EBITDA
—
NVR trades at 13.0x trailing earnings (about 15.4x on estimated forward earnings), 1.7x sales, and 4.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 2.8% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$4,223.68
Current price
$5,919.09
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.10B
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where NVR sits versus the Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 85 Consumer Discretionary companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How NVR stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 85 rated Consumer Discretionary companies we cover, NVR ranks #34 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (13x P/E vs. 24.6x median) with a higher return on equity (32.7% vs. 26.2%) and slower revenue growth (-7.7% vs. 6.8%).
P/E vs sector
13x
median 24.6x
ROE vs sector
32.7%
median 26.2%
Growth vs sector
-7.7%
median 6.8%
Sector rank
#34
of 85 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 85 rated companies among the 158 Consumer Discretionary stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$4,043.12 – $6,570.06
vs. $5,919.09 today · implied CAGR -7% – 2%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.63B | $10.95B | $11.28B | $11.62B | $11.97B |
| Net income | $1.38B | $1.42B | $1.47B | $1.51B | $1.56B |
| EPS | $449.03 | $462.50 | $476.38 | $490.67 | $505.39 |
| Share price (low) | $3,592.26 | $3,700.02 | $3,811.02 | $3,925.36 | $4,043.12 |
| Share price (high) | $5,837.42 | $6,012.54 | $6,192.92 | $6,378.70 | $6,570.06 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / -1% | -21% / 1% | -14% / 2% | -10% / 2% | -7% / 2% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for NVR:
- Strong return on equity (32.7%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~7.5%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.2x) lowers risk.
Bear Case
The case against NVR:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-7.7%), limiting the upside engine.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-7.7%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: NVR, Inc. is a large-cap consumer discretionary business with shrinking revenue, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 13.0x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (55/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 14 Wall Street analysts covering NVR recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
NVR's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
NVR — frequently asked questions
Is NVR a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates NVR, Inc. Neutral (55/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is NVR's rating on The Stocks School?
NVR, Inc. currently scores 55/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does NVR's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from NVR, Inc.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for NVR calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this NVR analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NVR. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.