UAL United Airlines Holdings
$97.01
▼ 4.2%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
UAL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 49/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 59.2% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$43.27B
P/E
8.38x
Forward P/E (est.)
8.21x
ROE
24.9%
Revenue Growth
4.7%
EPS Growth
2.0%
Profit Margin
6.1%
FCF Yield
13.9%
Debt / Equity
1.42x
ROIC
13.0%
Interest Coverage
7.03x
Current Ratio
0.78x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
2.9%
Rating Score
49/100
Business Overview
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is a large-cap company in the Passenger Airlines industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $43.27B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $59.07B in revenue and $3.35B in net profit.
Our model rates UAL Neutral (49/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
8.2% average over the last 3 years
±15.2 pts around 2.4% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 9 years
13.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what UAL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. UAL trades near $97.01, below its 50-day average ($107.06) and 200-day average ($103.37). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 79 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. UAL's is $5.16 (~5.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, UAL found buyers near $101.77 (support) and sellers near $138.77 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $78.33–$138.77. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
24.4%
Revenue moved from $36.56B in 2016 to $59.07B in 2025, a 5.5% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (4.7%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
63.5%
Operating Margin
8.0%
Net Margin
5.7%
ROE
24.9%
United Airlines Holdings keeps about 6.1% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 63.5% gross margin and 8.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 24.9% and return on invested capital about 13.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$11.49B
Net Debt
$1.33B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.28x
Debt / Equity
1.42x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.4x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.0x, with a current ratio of 0.8x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $11.49B of total debt against $10.17B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$8.43B
Free Cash Flow
$2.56B
FCF Margin
4.3%
In the latest year United Airlines Holdings produced about $8.43B of operating cash flow and $2.56B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 13.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
8.38x
P/S
0.63x
P/B
1.94x
EV / EBITDA
—
UAL trades at 8.4x trailing earnings (about 8.2x on estimated forward earnings), 0.6x sales, and 1.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 2.9% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$140.95
Current price
$97.01
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$2.56B
Growth, years 1–5
4.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where UAL sits versus the Industrials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How UAL stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 142 rated Industrials companies we cover, UAL ranks #79 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (8.4x P/E vs. 30.5x median) with a higher return on equity (24.9% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (4.7% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
8.4x
median 30.5x
ROE vs sector
24.9%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
4.7%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#79
of 142 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 142 rated companies among the 273 Industrials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$50.70 – $81.13
vs. $97.01 today · implied CAGR -12% – -4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $62.02B | $65.12B | $68.38B | $71.80B | $75.39B |
| Net income | $3.72B | $3.91B | $4.10B | $4.31B | $4.52B |
| EPS | $8.34 | $8.76 | $9.20 | $9.66 | $10.14 |
| Share price (low) | $41.71 | $43.80 | $45.99 | $48.29 | $50.70 |
| Share price (high) | $66.74 | $70.08 | $73.58 | $77.26 | $81.13 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -57% / -31% | -33% / -15% | -22% / -9% | -16% / -6% | -12% / -4% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for UAL:
- Strong return on equity (24.9%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~13.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
The case against UAL:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.4x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: United Airlines Holdings is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 8.4x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (49/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering UAL recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
UAL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
UAL — frequently asked questions
Is UAL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates United Airlines Holdings Neutral (49/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is UAL's rating on The Stocks School?
United Airlines Holdings currently scores 49/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does UAL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from United Airlines Holdings's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for UAL calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this UAL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell UAL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.