AXON Axon Enterprise
$396.76
▼ 4.9%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
AXON at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 36/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 45.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$48.12B
P/E
158.04x
Forward P/E (est.)
—
ROE
6.6%
Revenue Growth
34.0%
EPS Growth
-39.6%
Profit Margin
6.9%
FCF Yield
0.5%
Debt / Equity
0.56x
ROIC
-1.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
2.15x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
8.8%
Rating Score
36/100
Business Overview
Axon Enterprise (AXON) is a large-cap company in the Aerospace & Defense industry, part of the Industrials sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $48.12B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $2.78B in revenue and $124.66M in net profit.
Our model rates AXON Weak (36/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
60.2% average over the last 3 years
±1.5 pts around 60.9% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 10 years
-1.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what AXON's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. AXON trades near $396.76, below its 50-day average ($433.52) and 200-day average ($533.48). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 80 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. AXON's is $32.33 (~8.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, AXON found buyers near $402.00 (support) and sellers near $610.99 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $339.01–$885.92. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
33.9%
Revenue moved from $268.25M in 2016 to $2.78B in 2025, a 29.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 34.0% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
59.7%
Operating Margin
-2.2%
Net Margin
4.5%
ROE
6.6%
Axon Enterprise keeps about 6.9% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 59.7% gross margin and -2.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 6.6% and return on invested capital about -1.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$1.73B
Net Debt
$1.13B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.56x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.6x, with a current ratio of 2.1x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $1.73B of total debt against $597.70M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$211.34M
Free Cash Flow
$75.08M
FCF Margin
2.7%
In the latest year Axon Enterprise produced about $211.34M of operating cash flow and $75.08M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 0.5% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
158.04x
P/S
12.85x
P/B
12.59x
EV / EBITDA
—
AXON trades at 158.0x trailing earnings, 12.9x sales, and 12.6x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 8.8% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$38.27
Current price
$396.76
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$75.08M
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where AXON sits versus the Industrials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How AXON stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 142 rated Industrials companies we cover, AXON ranks #124 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (158x P/E vs. 30.5x median) with a lower return on equity (6.6% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (34.0% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
158x
median 30.5x
ROE vs sector
6.6%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
34.0%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#124
of 142 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 142 rated companies among the 273 Industrials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$376.23 – $625.74
vs. $396.76 today · implied CAGR -1% – 10%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.72B | $4.99B | $6.69B | $8.96B | $12.01B |
| Net income | $148.98M | $199.64M | $267.51M | $358.47M | $480.35M |
| EPS | $1.23 | $1.65 | $2.21 | $2.96 | $3.96 |
| Share price (low) | $116.69 | $156.37 | $209.53 | $280.77 | $376.23 |
| Share price (high) | $194.08 | $260.06 | $348.48 | $466.97 | $625.74 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -71% / -51% | -37% / -19% | -19% / -4% | -8% / 4% | -1% / 10% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for AXON:
- Revenue is growing 34.0% a year, a sign of real demand.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Industrials, it brings scale and a long operating history.
Bear Case
The case against AXON:
- A rich 158.0x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (36/100).
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 158.0x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Axon Enterprise is a large-cap industrials business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 158.0x earnings, which our model scores Weak (36/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 28 Wall Street analysts covering AXON recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
AXON's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
AXON — frequently asked questions
Is AXON a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Axon Enterprise Weak (36/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is AXON's rating on The Stocks School?
Axon Enterprise currently scores 36/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does AXON's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Axon Enterprise's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for AXON calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this AXON analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell AXON. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.