TOL
Toll Brothers Inc
$147.27
▲ 0.2%Updated Today 3:42 PM ET
TOL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
Overall: Neutral · 56/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
▲ Up 31.5% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$14.69B
P/E
11.32x
Forward P/E (est.)
11.55x
ROE
15.5%
Revenue Growth
3.6%
EPS Growth
-2.0%
Profit Margin
11.7%
FCF Yield
9.4%
Debt / Equity
0.34x
ROIC
16.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
0.7%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
1.9%
Rating Score
56/100
Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) is a large-cap company in the Consumer products industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $14.69B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $10.97B in revenue and $1.35B in net profit.
Our model rates TOL Neutral (56/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
Some durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
17.3% average over the last 3 years
±3.5 pts around 13.0% across 9 years
grew in 6 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 7 of 7 years
16.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TOL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TOL trades near $147.27, above its 50-day average ($143.46) and 200-day average ($141.56). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 59 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TOL's is $5.87 (~4.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month TOL found buyers near $136.77 (support) and sellers near $166.23 (resistance); its 52-week range is $113.52–$168.36. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.2× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
4Y CAGR
5.7%
Revenue moved from $5.82B in 2017 to $10.97B in 2025, a 8.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (3.6%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Gross Margin
24.4%
Operating Margin
15.7%
Net Margin
12.3%
ROE
15.5%
Toll Brothers Inc keeps about 11.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 24.4% gross margin and 15.7% operating margin. Return on equity is 15.5% and return on invested capital about 16.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.34x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.3x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns.
Operating CF
$1.11B
Free Cash Flow
$1.03B
FCF Margin
9.4%
In the latest year Toll Brothers Inc produced about $1.11B of operating cash flow and $1.03B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 9.4% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
The payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.7%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.98
Total paid (latest FY)
$97.08M
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 9% of free cash flow
7% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 5 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 9 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
P/E
11.32x
P/S
1.33x
P/B
1.55x
EV / EBITDA
7.53x
TOL trades at 11.3x trailing earnings (about 11.6x on estimated forward earnings), 1.3x sales, and 1.5x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 1.9% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
DCF fair value / share
$184.49
Current price
$147.27
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.03B
Growth, years 1–5
3.6%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Where TOL sits versus its Consumer Staples sector peers in the S&P 500.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in the S&P 500 — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
How TOL stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Staples sector (74 S&P 500 companies), TOL ranks #14 of 74 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (11.3x P/E vs. 22.2x median) with a lower return on equity (15.5% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (3.6% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
11.3x
median 22.2x
ROE vs sector
15.5%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
3.6%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#14
of 74 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 74 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$0.00 – $0.00
vs. $147.27 today · expected CAGR -5% – 4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.41B | $11.86B | $12.34B | $12.83B | $13.34B |
| Net income | $1.37B | $1.42B | $1.48B | $1.54B | $1.60B |
| EPS | $13.72 | $14.27 | $14.84 | $15.44 | $16.05 |
| Share price (low) | $96.06 | $99.90 | $103.90 | $108.05 | $112.38 |
| Share price (high) | $150.95 | $156.99 | $163.27 | $169.80 | $176.59 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -35% / 2% | -18% / 3% | -11% / 3% | -7% / 4% | -5% / 4% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for TOL:
- Strong return on equity (15.5%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~9.4%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.3x) lowers risk.
The case against TOL:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Toll Brothers Inc is a large-cap consumer staples business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 11.3x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (56/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 23 Wall Street analysts covering TOL recommend (July 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
TOL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen.
In the Idea Lab
TOL — frequently asked questions
Is TOL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Toll Brothers Inc Neutral (56/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is TOL's rating on The Stocks School?
Toll Brothers Inc currently scores 56/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does TOL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Toll Brothers Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for TOL calculated?
It's a scenario model: it grows revenue at an assumed rate, applies a profit margin and a valuation multiple, and shows the resulting share-price range. The assumptions are yours to change — it's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this TOL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell TOL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.