SMCI Supermicro
$31.70
▼ 9.7%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
SMCI at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 64/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 31.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$17.61B
P/E
16.44x
Forward P/E (est.)
16.18x
ROE
18.2%
Revenue Growth
56.2%
EPS Growth
1.6%
Profit Margin
3.7%
FCF Yield
39.4%
Debt / Equity
0.76x
ROIC
13.0%
Interest Coverage
119.44x
Current Ratio
2.66x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
0.3%
Rating Score
64/100
Business Overview
Supermicro (SMCI) is a large-cap company in the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals industry, part of the Information Technology sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $17.61B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $21.97B in revenue and $1.05B in net profit.
Our model rates SMCI Favorable (64/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
14.3% average over the last 3 years
±1.8 pts around 14.4% across 9 years
grew in 7 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 9 years
13.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what SMCI's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. SMCI trades near $31.70, below its 50-day average ($33.46) and 200-day average ($35.02). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 40 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. SMCI's is $2.56 (~8.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, SMCI found buyers near $26.70 (support) and sellers near $47.84 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $19.48–$62.36. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.6× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
57.6%
Revenue moved from $2.48B in 2017 to $21.97B in 2025, a 31.3% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 56.2% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
11.1%
Operating Margin
5.7%
Net Margin
4.8%
ROE
18.2%
Supermicro keeps about 3.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 11.1% gross margin and 5.7% operating margin. Return on equity is 18.2% and return on invested capital about 13.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$120.18M
Net Debt
-$1.17B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.93x
Debt / Equity
0.76x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.8x, and operating profit covers interest about 119.4x, with a current ratio of 2.7x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $120.18M of total debt against $1.29B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$1.66B
Free Cash Flow
$1.53B
FCF Margin
7.0%
In the latest year Supermicro produced about $1.66B of operating cash flow and $1.53B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 39.4% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
16.44x
P/S
0.86x
P/B
5.04x
EV / EBITDA
—
SMCI trades at 16.4x trailing earnings (about 16.2x on estimated forward earnings), 0.9x sales, and 5.0x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 0.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$105.51
Current price
$31.70
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.53B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where SMCI sits versus the Information Technology companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How SMCI stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 98 rated Information Technology companies we cover, SMCI ranks #35 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (16.4x P/E vs. 36.2x median) with a higher return on equity (18.2% vs. 17.5%) and faster revenue growth (56.2% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
16.4x
median 36.2x
ROE vs sector
18.2%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
56.2%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#35
of 98 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 98 rated companies among the 230 Information Technology stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$126.77 – $202.84
vs. $31.70 today · implied CAGR 32% – 45%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.86B | $46.20B | $66.98B | $97.13B | $140.83B |
| Net income | $1.59B | $2.31B | $3.35B | $4.86B | $7.04B |
| EPS | $2.87 | $4.16 | $6.03 | $8.74 | $12.68 |
| Share price (low) | $28.68 | $41.58 | $60.30 | $87.43 | $126.77 |
| Share price (high) | $45.89 | $66.53 | $96.48 | $139.89 | $202.84 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -10% / 45% | 15% / 45% | 24% / 45% | 29% / 45% | 32% / 45% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for SMCI:
- Revenue is growing 56.2% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (18.2%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~39.4%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (64/100).
Bear Case
The case against SMCI:
- Thin net margins (3.7%) leave little room for error.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.7%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Supermicro is a large-cap information technology business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 16.4x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (64/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 27 Wall Street analysts covering SMCI recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-5 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
SMCI's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
SMCI — frequently asked questions
Is SMCI a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Supermicro Favorable (64/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is SMCI's rating on The Stocks School?
Supermicro currently scores 64/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does SMCI's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Supermicro's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for SMCI calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this SMCI analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell SMCI. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.