STX Seagate Technology
$650.68
▼ 5.8%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
STX at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 57/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 715.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$183.90B
P/E
60.61x
Forward P/E (est.)
43.29x
ROE
172.6%
Revenue Growth
28.9%
EPS Growth
53.8%
Profit Margin
21.6%
FCF Yield
-0.1%
Debt / Equity
51.8x
ROIC
103.0%
Interest Coverage
12.33x
Current Ratio
1.67x
Dividend Yield
0.3%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
7.2%
Rating Score
57/100
Business Overview
Seagate Technology (STX) is a large-cap company in the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals industry, part of the Information Technology sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $183.90B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.20B in revenue and $3.18B in net profit.
Our model rates STX Neutral (57/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
20.4% average over the last 3 years
±9.2 pts around 13.8% across 10 years
grew in 6 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
103.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what STX's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. STX trades near $650.68, around its 50-day average ($840.19) and 200-day average ($456.81). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 47 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. STX's is $93.54 (~14.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, STX found buyers near $795.66 (support) and sellers near $1,145.00 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $138.30–$1,145.00. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.3× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
1.1%
Revenue moved from $10.77B in 2017 to $12.20B in 2026, a 1.4% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 28.9% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
41.6%
Operating Margin
33.6%
Net Margin
26.1%
ROE
172.6%
Seagate Technology keeps about 21.6% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 41.6% gross margin and 33.6% operating margin. Return on equity is 172.6% and return on invested capital about 103.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$964.00M
Net Debt
-$740.00M
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.18x
Debt / Equity
51.8x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 51.8x, and operating profit covers interest about 12.3x, with a current ratio of 1.7x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $964.00M of total debt against $1.70B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$3.67B
Free Cash Flow
$3.10B
FCF Margin
25.5%
In the latest year Seagate Technology produced about $3.67B of operating cash flow and $3.10B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about -0.1% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
0.3%
Per share (latest FY)
$2.94
Total paid (latest FY)
$634.00M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 20% of free cash flow
20% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 3 years in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 10 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
60.61x
P/S
25.11x
P/B
85.92x
EV / EBITDA
—
STX trades at 60.6x trailing earnings (about 43.3x on estimated forward earnings), 25.1x sales, and 85.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 7.2% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$567.32
Current price
$650.68
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$3.10B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where STX sits versus the Information Technology companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How STX stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 98 rated Information Technology companies we cover, STX ranks #53 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (60.6x P/E vs. 36.2x median) with a higher return on equity (172.6% vs. 17.5%) and faster revenue growth (28.9% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
60.6x
median 36.2x
ROE vs sector
172.6%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
28.9%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#53
of 98 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 98 rated companies among the 230 Information Technology stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$1,482.80 – $2,444.62
vs. $650.68 today · implied CAGR 18% – 30%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.73B | $20.29B | $26.18B | $33.77B | $43.56B |
| Net income | $4.09B | $5.28B | $6.81B | $8.78B | $11.33B |
| EPS | $14.47 | $18.67 | $24.08 | $31.07 | $40.08 |
| Share price (low) | $535.46 | $690.74 | $891.05 | $1,149.46 | $1,482.80 |
| Share price (high) | $882.78 | $1,138.78 | $1,469.03 | $1,895.05 | $2,444.62 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -18% / 36% | 3% / 32% | 11% / 31% | 15% / 31% | 18% / 30% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for STX:
- Revenue is growing 28.9% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (21.6%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (172.6%) shows capital is put to work well.
Bear Case
The case against STX:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 51.8x) adds financial risk.
- A rich 60.6x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 60.6x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 51.8x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Seagate Technology is a large-cap information technology business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 60.6x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (57/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering STX recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
STX's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
STX — frequently asked questions
Is STX a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Seagate Technology Neutral (57/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is STX's rating on The Stocks School?
Seagate Technology currently scores 57/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does STX's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Seagate Technology's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for STX calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this STX analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell STX. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.