MA Mastercard Incorporated
$614.90
▼ 0.2%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
MA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 65/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 9.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$476.60B
P/E
34.67x
Forward P/E (est.)
28.6x
ROE
206.1%
Revenue Growth
16.8%
EPS Growth
21.2%
Profit Margin
45.9%
FCF Yield
2.5%
Debt / Equity
2.46x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
32.86x
Current Ratio
1.06x
Dividend Yield
0.7%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
5.2%
Rating Score
65/100
Business Overview
Mastercard is the number-two global card network, mirroring Visa's high-margin, asset-light economics with a growing value-added-services arm in data, fraud, and consulting that diversifies it beyond pure transaction fees.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
56.3% average over the last 3 years
±2.6 pts around 54.3% across 9 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Uptrend — price ($614.90) is above the 50-day ($497.45) and 200-day ($531.14) averages.
Setup type
Trend-continuation swing
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Low
Risk / reward
1 : 0.2
Trade levels
Entry zone
$600.54 – $614.90
Stop loss
$471.48
Target 1
$636.45
Target 2
$656.80
Target 3
$680.74
Position sizing: Standard size; risk ≤ 1.5% of capital.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is overbought (77); the MACD histogram is positive (upward momentum). Uptrend — price ($614.90) is above the 50-day ($497.45) and 200-day ($531.14) averages. ATR(14) is $11.97 (~1.9% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $477.46 and resistance near $539.63; the 52-week range is $464.52–$601.77.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is growing at 16.8%, net margin near 45.9%, ROE roughly 206.1%; shares trade at 35x earnings. Quality score: 65/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $11.97 (~1.9%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $539.63 or a loss of $477.46.
Bullish scenario
Toll-booth model with ~57% operating margins and high returns.
Bearish scenario
Interchange and network regulation worldwide.
Invalidation
A daily close below $471.48 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MA trades near $614.90, above its 50-day average ($497.45) and 200-day average ($531.14). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 77 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MA's is $11.97 (~1.9% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, MA found buyers near $477.46 (support) and sellers near $539.63 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $464.52–$601.77. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
14.8%
Revenue grew from $9.47B in 2014 to $32.79B in 2025, a 14.8% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 16.8% year over year, a healthy pace pointing to durable demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
57.6%
Net Margin
—
ROE
206.1%
Gross margin runs near 76.0% with operating margin around 57.9% and net margin near 45.9%. Return on equity of roughly 206.1% indicates strong capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended high and stable over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$21.00M
Net Debt
-$11.27B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.6x
Debt / Equity
2.46x
Interest-bearing debt is about 4.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 2.46x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$17.65B
Free Cash Flow
$17.16B
FCF Margin
52.3%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 2.5%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.7%
Per share (latest FY)
$3.15
Total paid (latest FY)
$2.76B
History on record
9 years
dividend uses 16% of free cash flow
total dividends increased 8 years in a row
no cuts in the last 9 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
34.67x
P/S
13.42x
P/B
81.27x
EV / EBITDA
28x
Shares trade at roughly 35x trailing earnings (31x forward), 13.4x sales, and 28x EV/EBITDA. That is a full but defensible multiple for a quality franchise. Our internal rating is Favorable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$4,871.12
Current price
$614.90
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$17.16B
Growth, years 1–5
16.8%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where MA sits versus the Financials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 141 Financials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How MA stacks up against its Financials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 141 rated Financials companies we cover, MA ranks #68 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (34.7x P/E vs. 14.9x median) with a higher return on equity (206.1% vs. 13.6%) and faster revenue growth (16.8% vs. 15.9%).
P/E vs sector
34.7x
median 14.9x
ROE vs sector
206.1%
median 13.6%
Growth vs sector
16.8%
median 15.9%
Sector rank
#68
of 141 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Financials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 141 rated companies among the 289 Financials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$194.79 – $324.64
vs. $614.90 today · implied CAGR -21% – -12%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.37B | $44.89B | $52.52B | $61.45B | $71.89B |
| Net income | $3.84B | $4.49B | $5.25B | $6.14B | $7.19B |
| EPS | $4.95 | $5.79 | $6.78 | $7.93 | $9.28 |
| Share price (low) | $103.95 | $121.62 | $142.29 | $166.48 | $194.79 |
| Share price (high) | $173.25 | $202.70 | $237.16 | $277.47 | $324.64 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -83% / -72% | -56% / -43% | -39% / -27% | -28% / -18% | -21% / -12% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions. Growth, margin or P/E data is missing for this stock, so some starting values above are placeholders rather than measurements.
Bull Case
- Toll-booth model with ~57% operating margins and high returns.
- Fast-growing services segment diversifies beyond pure transaction fees.
- Long runway in cross-border and digital payments.
Bear Case
- Interchange and network regulation worldwide.
- Real-time payment systems threaten long-term card economics.
- Trades at a premium multiple that assumes continued double-digit growth.
Key Risks
- Regulatory fee caps.
- Disruption from account-to-account rails.
- Cyclical consumer spending.
Final Investment Thesis
Mastercard is a premier payments franchise with Visa-like economics and a faster-growing services arm; the price you pay, not the business quality, is the main risk.
Analyst Ratings
What 54 Wall Street analysts covering MA recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
MA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
MA — frequently asked questions
Is MA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Mastercard Incorporated Favorable (65/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is MA's rating on The Stocks School?
Mastercard Incorporated currently scores 65/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does MA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Mastercard Incorporated's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for MA calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this MA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.