DLTR Dollar Tree
$124.24
▼ 0.1%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
DLTR at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 69/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 14.5% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$23.84B
P/E
18.78x
Forward P/E (est.)
19.73x
ROE
35.9%
Revenue Growth
51.3%
EPS Growth
-4.8%
Profit Margin
6.5%
FCF Yield
8.2%
Debt / Equity
0.65x
ROIC
22.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.16x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.4%
Rating Score
69/100
Business Overview
Dollar Tree (DLTR) is a large-cap company in the Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $23.84B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $19.40B in revenue and $1.28B in net profit.
Our model rates DLTR Favorable (69/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
36.0% average over the last 3 years
±3.0 pts around 32.8% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
22.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what DLTR's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. DLTR trades near $124.24, above its 50-day average ($104.54) and 200-day average ($110.25). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 63 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. DLTR's is $4.82 (~3.9% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, DLTR found buyers near $105.22 (support) and sellers near $125.49 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $84.71–$142.40. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
-7.3%
Revenue moved from $20.72B in 2017 to $19.40B in 2026, a -0.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 51.3% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
36.4%
Operating Margin
8.5%
Net Margin
6.6%
ROE
35.9%
Dollar Tree keeps about 6.5% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 36.4% gross margin and 8.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 35.9% and return on invested capital about 22.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$2.43B
Net Debt
$1.42B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.86x
Debt / Equity
0.65x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.6x, with a current ratio of 1.2x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $2.43B of total debt against $1.01B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$2.19B
Free Cash Flow
$1.06B
FCF Margin
5.4%
In the latest year Dollar Tree produced about $2.19B of operating cash flow and $1.06B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 8.2% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
18.78x
P/S
1.11x
P/B
6.96x
EV / EBITDA
—
DLTR trades at 18.8x trailing earnings (about 19.7x on estimated forward earnings), 1.1x sales, and 7.0x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.4% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$227.70
Current price
$124.24
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.06B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where DLTR sits versus the Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How DLTR stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 48 rated Consumer Staples companies we cover, DLTR ranks #3 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (18.8x P/E vs. 22x median) with a higher return on equity (35.9% vs. 18.1%) and faster revenue growth (51.3% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
18.8x
median 22x
ROE vs sector
35.9%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
51.3%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#3
of 48 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 48 rated companies among the 74 Consumer Staples stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$498.89 – $861.72
vs. $124.24 today · implied CAGR 32% – 47%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.12B | $40.78B | $59.13B | $85.74B | $124.32B |
| Net income | $1.97B | $2.85B | $4.14B | $6.00B | $8.70B |
| EPS | $10.26 | $14.88 | $21.57 | $31.28 | $45.35 |
| Share price (low) | $112.86 | $163.64 | $237.28 | $344.06 | $498.89 |
| Share price (high) | $194.94 | $282.66 | $409.85 | $594.29 | $861.72 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -9% / 57% | 15% / 51% | 24% / 49% | 29% / 48% | 32% / 47% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for DLTR:
- Revenue is growing 51.3% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (35.9%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~8.2%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (69/100).
Bear Case
The case against DLTR:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Dollar Tree is a large-cap consumer staples business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 18.8x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (69/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 35 Wall Street analysts covering DLTR recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
DLTR's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
DLTR — frequently asked questions
Is DLTR a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Dollar Tree Favorable (69/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is DLTR's rating on The Stocks School?
Dollar Tree currently scores 69/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does DLTR's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Dollar Tree's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for DLTR calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this DLTR analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell DLTR. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.