STZ Constellation Brands
$130.78
▲ 0.9%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
STZ at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 55/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 11.8% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$23.48B
P/E
13.48x
Forward P/E (est.)
—
ROE
22.1%
Revenue Growth
-10.5%
EPS Growth
—
Profit Margin
18.5%
FCF Yield
6.9%
Debt / Equity
1.31x
ROIC
12.0%
Interest Coverage
7.18x
Current Ratio
0.91x
Dividend Yield
2.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
1.3%
Rating Score
55/100
Business Overview
Constellation Brands (STZ) is a large-cap company in the Distillers & Vintners industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $23.48B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $9.14B in revenue and $1.69B in net profit.
Our model rates STZ Neutral (55/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe filed history looks like a business competitors struggle to attack: high and steady margins, revenue that grows through cycles, and strong returns on capital.
51.3% average over the last 3 years
±1.4 pts around 50.8% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 9 years
12.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what STZ's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. STZ trades near $130.78, below its 50-day average ($145.27) and 200-day average ($145.82). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 41 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. STZ's is $4.81 (~3.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, STZ found buyers near $134.33 (support) and sellers near $150.99 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $126.45–$178.14. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
0.9%
Revenue moved from $7.32B in 2017 to $9.14B in 2026, a 2.5% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 10.5% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
51.6%
Operating Margin
29.8%
Net Margin
18.5%
ROE
22.1%
Constellation Brands keeps about 18.5% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 51.6% gross margin and 29.8% operating margin. Return on equity is 22.1% and return on invested capital about 12.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$10.20B
Net Debt
$10.10B
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.71x
Debt / Equity
1.31x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.3x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.2x, with a current ratio of 0.9x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $10.20B of total debt against $96.60M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$2.67B
Free Cash Flow
$1.79B
FCF Margin
19.6%
In the latest year Constellation Brands produced about $2.67B of operating cash flow and $1.79B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
2.8%
Total paid (latest FY)
$715.70M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 40% of free cash flow
42% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
13.48x
P/S
2.74x
P/B
3.05x
EV / EBITDA
—
STZ trades at 13.5x trailing earnings, 2.7x sales, and 3.0x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 1.3% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$130.78
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.79B
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where STZ sits versus the Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 48 Consumer Staples companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How STZ stacks up against its Consumer Staples peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 48 rated Consumer Staples companies we cover, STZ ranks #15 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (13.5x P/E vs. 22x median) with a higher return on equity (22.1% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (-10.5% vs. 3.4%).
P/E vs sector
13.5x
median 22x
ROE vs sector
22.1%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
-10.5%
median 3.4%
Sector rank
#15
of 48 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Staples companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 48 rated companies among the 74 Consumer Staples stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$84.99 – $138.10
vs. $130.78 today · implied CAGR -8% – 1%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.41B | $9.70B | $9.99B | $10.29B | $10.59B |
| Net income | $1.69B | $1.75B | $1.80B | $1.85B | $1.91B |
| EPS | $9.44 | $9.72 | $10.01 | $10.31 | $10.62 |
| Share price (low) | $75.51 | $77.78 | $80.11 | $82.51 | $84.99 |
| Share price (high) | $122.70 | $126.39 | $130.18 | $134.08 | $138.10 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -42% / -6% | -23% / -2% | -15% / -0% | -11% / 1% | -8% / 1% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for STZ:
- High net margins (18.5%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (22.1%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 2.8% dividend on top of any price gains.
Bear Case
The case against STZ:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-10.5%), limiting the upside engine.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.3x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-10.5%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Constellation Brands is a large-cap consumer staples business with shrinking revenue, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 13.5x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (55/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 29 Wall Street analysts covering STZ recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
STZ's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
STZ — frequently asked questions
Is STZ a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Constellation Brands Neutral (55/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is STZ's rating on The Stocks School?
Constellation Brands currently scores 55/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does STZ's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Constellation Brands's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for STZ calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this STZ analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell STZ. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.