AVB AvalonBay Communities
$192.35
▼ 1.6%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
AVB at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 61/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 14.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$27.52B
P/E
23.9x
Forward P/E (est.)
23.99x
ROE
9.7%
Revenue Growth
4.0%
EPS Growth
-0.4%
Profit Margin
37.2%
FCF Yield
6.7%
Debt / Equity
0.81x
ROIC
8.0%
Interest Coverage
7.8x
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
3.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
3.7%
Rating Score
61/100
Business Overview
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is a large-cap company in the Multi-Family Residential REITs industry, part of the Real Estate sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $27.52B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $7.04M in revenue.
Our model rates AVB Favorable (61/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
26288.0% average over the last 3 years
±7636.2 pts around 32159.3% across 10 years
grew in 3 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
8.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what AVB's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. AVB trades near $192.35, above its 50-day average ($184.30) and 200-day average ($179.94). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 63 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. AVB's is $3.96 (~2.1% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, AVB found buyers near $176.13 (support) and sellers near $193.99 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $160.10–$205.00. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.5× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
22.9%
Revenue moved from $5.60M in 2016 to $7.04M in 2025, a 2.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (4.0%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
62.8%
Operating Margin
28698.5%
Net Margin
37.2%
ROE
9.7%
AvalonBay Communities keeps about 37.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 62.8% gross margin and 28698.5% operating margin. Return on equity is 9.7% and return on invested capital about 8.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$9.02B
Net Debt
$8.94B
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.43x
Debt / Equity
0.81x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.8x, and operating profit covers interest about 7.8x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $9.02B of total debt against $80.68M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$1.67B
Free Cash Flow
$1.41B
FCF Margin
20013.3%
In the latest year AvalonBay Communities produced about $1.67B of operating cash flow and $1.41B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.7% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
3.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$7.00
Total paid (latest FY)
$839.65M
History on record
4 years
dividend uses 60% of free cash flow
total dividends increased 3 years in a row
no cuts in the last 4 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
23.9x
P/S
8.61x
P/B
2.35x
EV / EBITDA
—
AVB trades at 23.9x trailing earnings (about 24.0x on estimated forward earnings), 8.6x sales, and 2.3x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 3.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$169.64
Current price
$192.35
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.41B
Growth, years 1–5
4.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where AVB sits versus the Real Estate companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 33 Real Estate companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How AVB stacks up against its Real Estate peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 33 rated Real Estate companies we cover, AVB ranks #8 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (23.9x P/E vs. 29.9x median) with a higher return on equity (9.7% vs. 8.0%) and slower revenue growth (4.0% vs. 5.3%).
P/E vs sector
23.9x
median 29.9x
ROE vs sector
9.7%
median 8.0%
Growth vs sector
4.0%
median 5.3%
Sector rank
#8
of 33 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Real Estate companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 33 rated companies among the 41 Real Estate stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$0.31 – $0.53
vs. $192.35 today · implied CAGR -72% – -69%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.32M | $7.62M | $7.92M | $8.24M | $8.57M |
| Net income | $2.71M | $2.82M | $2.93M | $3.05M | $3.17M |
| EPS | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 |
| Share price (low) | $0.27 | $0.28 | $0.29 | $0.30 | $0.31 |
| Share price (high) | $0.45 | $0.47 | $0.49 | $0.51 | $0.53 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -100% / -100% | -96% / -95% | -89% / -86% | -80% / -77% | -72% / -69% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for AVB:
- High net margins (37.2%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.7%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 3.9% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (61/100).
Bear Case
The case against AVB:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: AvalonBay Communities is a large-cap real estate business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 23.9x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (61/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 24 Wall Street analysts covering AVB recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
In the Idea Lab
AVB — frequently asked questions
Is AVB a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates AvalonBay Communities Favorable (61/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is AVB's rating on The Stocks School?
AvalonBay Communities currently scores 61/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does AVB's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from AvalonBay Communities's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for AVB calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this AVB analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell AVB. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.