TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
$405.05
▲ 1.1%Updated Today 6:01 PM ET
▲ Up 24.4% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$1.50T
P/E
110x
Forward P/E (est.)
157.14x
ROE
4.8%
Revenue Growth
2.3%
EPS Growth
-39.1%
Profit Margin
4.0%
FCF Yield
1.1%
Debt / Equity
0.1x
ROIC
4.0%
Interest Coverage
27.92x
Current Ratio
2.04x
Dividend Yield
0.0%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
8.6%
Rating Score
24/100
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Sideways — price ($405.05) sits between its 50-day ($402.49) and 200-day ($416.96) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
High
Risk / reward
1 : 2.3
Trade levels
Entry zone
$380.15 – $405.05
Stop loss
$370.96
Target 1
$441.83
Target 2
$469.42
Target 3
$497.00
Position sizing: Starter position only; risk ≤ 0.5% of capital and respect the wider stop.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is soft (39); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Sideways — price ($405.05) sits between its 50-day ($402.49) and 200-day ($416.96) averages. ATR(14) is $18.39 (~4.5% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $380.15 and resistance near $445.60; the 52-week range is $288.77–$498.83.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 2.3%, net margin near 4.0%, ROE roughly 4.8%; shares trade at 110x earnings. Quality score: 24/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $18.39 (~4.5%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 1.2× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $445.60 or a loss of $380.15.
Bullish scenario
Optionality in autonomy (FSD/robotaxi) and Optimus could open enormous new markets.
Bearish scenario
Core auto margins have fallen sharply amid price cuts and EV competition.
Invalidation
A daily close below $370.96 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what TSLA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. TSLA trades near $405.05, around its 50-day average ($402.49) and 200-day average ($416.96). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 39 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. TSLA's is $18.39 (~4.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month TSLA found buyers near $380.15 (support) and sellers near $445.60 (resistance); its 52-week range is $288.77–$498.83. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.2× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
Tesla is the leading pure-play EV maker, with growing energy-storage and an ambitious autonomy/robotics roadmap. Auto margins have compressed amid price cuts and competition, so the bull case increasingly rests on Full Self-Driving, robotaxi, and Optimus rather than today's car economics.
4Y CAGR
15.2%
Revenue grew from $53.82B in 2021 to $94.83B in 2025, a 15.2% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 2.3% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Gross Margin
18.0%
Operating Margin
4.6%
Net Margin
4.0%
ROE
4.8%
Gross margin runs near 19.1% with operating margin around 5.0% and net margin near 4.0%. Return on equity of roughly 4.8% indicates moderate capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Total Debt
$7.64B
Net Debt
-$8.96B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-2.06x
Debt / Equity
0.1x
Interest-bearing debt is about 1.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.10x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Operating CF
$14.75B
Free Cash Flow
$6.22B
FCF Margin
6.6%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 1.1%. Cash generation is positive but partly absorbed by reinvestment and capital expenditure.
P/E
110x
P/S
16.28x
P/B
18.02x
EV / EBITDA
75x
Shares trade at roughly 110x trailing earnings (90x forward), 16.3x sales, and 75x EV/EBITDA. That is a premium multiple that prices in continued high growth — execution risk is elevated. Our internal rating is Weak.
Where this stock sits versus what most companies trade at.
Typical ranges are general references (e.g., many stocks trade at ~18–26x earnings), not hard rules. Context only — not investment advice.
How TSLA stacks up against its Consumer Discretionary peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Consumer Discretionary sector (48 S&P 500 companies), TSLA ranks #45 of 48 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (110x P/E vs. 23.7x median) with a lower return on equity (4.8% vs. 39.2%) and slower revenue growth (2.3% vs. 6.2%).
P/E vs sector
110x
median 23.7x
ROE vs sector
4.8%
median 39.2%
Growth vs sector
2.3%
median 6.2%
Sector rank
#45
of 48 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Consumer Discretionary companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 48 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$77.27 – $128.79
vs. $405.05 today · expected CAGR -28% – -20%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $97.67B | $100.60B | $103.62B | $106.73B | $109.93B |
| Net income | $3.91B | $4.02B | $4.14B | $4.27B | $4.40B |
| EPS | $1.04 | $1.07 | $1.10 | $1.14 | $1.17 |
| Share price (low) | $68.66 | $70.72 | $72.84 | $75.02 | $77.27 |
| Share price (high) | $114.43 | $117.86 | $121.40 | $125.04 | $128.79 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -83% / -72% | -58% / -46% | -44% / -33% | -34% / -25% | -28% / -20% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
- Optionality in autonomy (FSD/robotaxi) and Optimus could open enormous new markets.
- Energy storage is scaling rapidly at improving margins.
- Manufacturing scale and software/data advantages in EVs.
- Core auto margins have fallen sharply amid price cuts and EV competition.
- The valuation prices in autonomy success that remains unproven.
- Demand growth has stalled in key markets.
- Execution and regulatory risk on autonomy timelines.
- Intensifying global EV competition and price wars.
- Key-person and governance concentration.
Tesla is a high-volatility bet on autonomy and energy rather than current auto fundamentals, and the valuation already assumes meaningful success in both; suited only to risk-tolerant investors.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.