ON ON Semiconductor
$72.42
▼ 1.7%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
ON at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 32/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 132.7% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$35.50B
P/E
50.17x
Forward P/E (est.)
51.66x
ROE
7.4%
Revenue Growth
-9.0%
EPS Growth
-2.9%
Profit Margin
9.5%
FCF Yield
5.3%
Debt / Equity
0.39x
ROIC
1.0%
Interest Coverage
1.13x
Current Ratio
3.46x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.8%
Rating Score
32/100
Business Overview
ON Semiconductor (ON) is a large-cap company in the Semiconductors industry, part of the Information Technology sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $35.50B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $6.00B in revenue and $121.00M in net profit.
Our model rates ON Weak (32/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
41.9% average over the last 3 years
±5.8 pts around 39.1% across 10 years
grew in 4 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
1.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what ON's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. ON trades near $72.42, around its 50-day average ($110.69) and 200-day average ($71.04). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 38 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. ON's is $9.84 (~13.6% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, ON found buyers near $86.47 (support) and sellers near $134.49 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $44.56–$134.92. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.1× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
-2.9%
Revenue moved from $3.91B in 2016 to $6.00B in 2025, a 4.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 9.0% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
33.1%
Operating Margin
1.4%
Net Margin
2.0%
ROE
7.4%
ON Semiconductor keeps about 9.5% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 33.1% gross margin and 1.4% operating margin. Return on equity is 7.4% and return on invested capital about 1.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$4.50B
Net Debt
$990.40M
Net Debt / EBITDA
11.76x
Debt / Equity
0.39x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.4x, and operating profit covers interest about 1.1x, with a current ratio of 3.5x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $4.50B of total debt against $3.51B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$1.76B
Free Cash Flow
$1.42B
FCF Margin
23.7%
In the latest year ON Semiconductor produced about $1.76B of operating cash flow and $1.42B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 5.3% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
50.17x
P/S
7.84x
P/B
1.74x
EV / EBITDA
—
ON trades at 50.2x trailing earnings (about 51.7x on estimated forward earnings), 7.8x sales, and 1.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 4.8% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$37.39
Current price
$72.42
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.42B
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where ON sits versus the Information Technology companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How ON stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 98 rated Information Technology companies we cover, ON ranks #91 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (50.2x P/E vs. 36.2x median) with a lower return on equity (7.4% vs. 17.5%) and slower revenue growth (-9.0% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
50.2x
median 36.2x
ROE vs sector
7.4%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
-9.0%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#91
of 98 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 98 rated companies among the 230 Information Technology stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$12.76 – $21.27
vs. $72.42 today · implied CAGR -29% – -22%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.18B | $6.36B | $6.55B | $6.75B | $6.95B |
| Net income | $185.26M | $190.82M | $196.54M | $202.44M | $208.51M |
| EPS | $0.38 | $0.39 | $0.40 | $0.41 | $0.43 |
| Share price (low) | $11.34 | $11.68 | $12.03 | $12.39 | $12.76 |
| Share price (high) | $18.90 | $19.46 | $20.05 | $20.65 | $21.27 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -84% / -74% | -60% / -48% | -45% / -35% | -36% / -27% | -29% / -22% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for ON:
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~5.3%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.4x) lowers risk.
Bear Case
The case against ON:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-9.0%), limiting the upside engine.
- Interest coverage is thin (1.1x), so debt costs bite.
- A rich 50.2x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (32/100).
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 50.2x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-9.0%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: ON Semiconductor is a large-cap information technology business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 50.2x earnings, which our model scores Weak (32/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
ON's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
ON — frequently asked questions
Is ON a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates ON Semiconductor Weak (32/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is ON's rating on The Stocks School?
ON Semiconductor currently scores 32/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does ON's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from ON Semiconductor's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for ON calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this ON analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ON. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.