LITE Lumentum
$836.74
▼ 3.8%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
LITE at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 43/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 860.9% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$56.66B
P/E
148.64x
Forward P/E (est.)
—
ROE
30.7%
Revenue Growth
69.0%
EPS Growth
-48.2%
Profit Margin
17.7%
FCF Yield
0.1%
Debt / Equity
2.27x
ROIC
-3.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.14x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
43/100
Business Overview
Lumentum (LITE) is a large-cap company in the Communications Equipment industry, part of the Information Technology sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $56.66B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $1.65B in revenue and $25.90M in net profit.
Our model rates LITE Neutral (43/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
26.2% average over the last 3 years
±8.3 pts around 33.6% across 9 years
grew in 6 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 6 of 9 years
-3.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what LITE's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. LITE trades near $836.74, around its 50-day average ($898.08) and 200-day average ($542.92). Price tangled in its moving averages means there is no clear trend — the stock is ranging.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 35 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. LITE's is $74.54 (~8.9% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, LITE found buyers near $710.01 (support) and sellers near $998.50 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $88.37–$1,085.68. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
-1.4%
Revenue moved from $1.00B in 2017 to $1.65B in 2025, a 6.4% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 69.0% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
28.0%
Operating Margin
-10.9%
Net Margin
1.6%
ROE
30.7%
Lumentum keeps about 17.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 28.0% gross margin and -10.9% operating margin. Return on equity is 30.7% and return on invested capital about -3.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$2.40B
Net Debt
-$212.80M
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
2.27x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 2.3x, with a current ratio of 1.1x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $2.40B of total debt against $2.62B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$126.30M
Free Cash Flow
-$104.70M
FCF Margin
-6.4%
In the latest year Lumentum produced about $126.30M of operating cash flow but negative free cash flow as it invested heavily. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 0.1% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
148.64x
P/S
41.58x
P/B
5.59x
EV / EBITDA
—
LITE trades at 148.6x trailing earnings, 41.6x sales, and 5.6x book value. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where LITE sits versus the Information Technology companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 98 Information Technology companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How LITE stacks up against its Information Technology peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 98 rated Information Technology companies we cover, LITE ranks #79 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (148.6x P/E vs. 36.2x median) with a higher return on equity (30.7% vs. 17.5%) and faster revenue growth (69.0% vs. 17.7%).
P/E vs sector
148.6x
median 36.2x
ROE vs sector
30.7%
median 17.5%
Growth vs sector
69.0%
median 17.7%
Sector rank
#79
of 98 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Information Technology companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 98 rated companies among the 230 Information Technology stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$415.72 – $695.99
vs. $836.74 today · implied CAGR -13% – -4%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.39B | $3.46B | $5.01B | $7.27B | $10.54B |
| Net income | $71.56M | $103.76M | $150.45M | $218.15M | $316.32M |
| EPS | $1.06 | $1.53 | $2.22 | $3.22 | $4.67 |
| Share price (low) | $94.04 | $136.36 | $197.73 | $286.71 | $415.72 |
| Share price (high) | $157.45 | $228.30 | $331.03 | $479.99 | $695.99 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -89% / -81% | -60% / -48% | -38% / -27% | -23% / -13% | -13% / -4% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for LITE:
- Revenue is growing 69.0% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (17.7%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (30.7%) shows capital is put to work well.
Bear Case
The case against LITE:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 2.3x) adds financial risk.
- A rich 148.6x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 148.6x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 2.3x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Lumentum is a large-cap information technology business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 148.6x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (43/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 35 Wall Street analysts covering LITE recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+5 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
LITE's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
LITE — frequently asked questions
Is LITE a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Lumentum Neutral (43/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is LITE's rating on The Stocks School?
Lumentum currently scores 43/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does LITE's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Lumentum's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for LITE calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this LITE analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell LITE. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.